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June 20, 2014
  • Wheat futures closed mixed this week as harvest pressure pushed the indexes lower on Friday after mid-week gains. Rain raised quality concerns for the SRW crop and threatened to prevent the final spring plantings in the Northern Plains, which supported futures. News that Brazil will allow up to 1.0 MMT of tariff-free wheat into the country and early reports of low yields from Kansas also pushed markets higher. Gains were limited by ample world supply and relatively weak export demand for U.S. wheat. KCBT July wheat let with an 8 cent gain to close at $7.21/bu. MGEX added 6 cents to $6.91/bu and CBOT lost one cent to close at $5.85/bu. CBOT July corn added 6 cents to $4.53/bu and CBOT July soybeans fell 10 cents to $14.16/bu.
  • USDA reported winter wheat harvest was 16% complete as of June 15, up from 9% the prior week and below the 5-year average of 20%. The first harvest report from Kansas, the largest wheat producing state, showed early yields are disappointing and below USDA expectations. Traders expect yields to improve as the harvest moves north.
  • Spring wheat planting is mostly finished and USDA reports 72% of the crop is in good or excellent condition, compared to 68% at this time last year. Only 4% of the crop is rated poor or very poor, compared to 5% last year.
  • French analyst group Strategie Grains increased its forecast for 2014/15 EU soft wheat production by 2.0 MMT to 139 MMT, based on better yield prospects due to favorable growing conditions. The EU grain lobby Coceral also increased its soft wheat forecast from its previous estimate, up 6.0 MMT to 142 MMT. USDA increased its total EU production forecast in its June WASDE by 1.37 MMT to 146 MMT.
  • The Brazilian government announced plans to temporarily remove the 10% import tariff normally applied to non-Mercosur wheat, allowing up to 1.0 MMT into the country tariff-free through August 15. Brazil purchased 4.12 MMT of HRW from the U.S. in 2013/14, the majority of which was tariff-free.
  • According to USDA’s weekly export sales report, commercial wheat sales of 372,600 MT were within trade expectations of 350,000 to 500,000 MT. Total known outstanding sales and accumulated exports for the 2014/15 marketing year, through June 12, 2014 were 6.90 MMT, 12% lower than last year's year-to-date total of 7.84 MMT. USDA forecasts 2013/14 U.S. wheat exports (including donations) to reach 25.2 MMT.
  • The Baltic Panamax Index fell from 582 last week to 461. The index has dropped 56% since closing at 1,041 on May 16.
  • The US Dollar Index closed lower this week, down from 80.65 last Friday to 80.44.

File Name
PR 140620.pdf
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