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September 27, 2013
  • Wheat futures were up sharply this week due to production concerns in Argentina and improved prospects for U.S. exports. A frost early in the week could harm Argentina’s wheat crop and reduce the world’s exportable supply. Strong commercial sales and speculation that China’s higher-than-normal imports will continue added support to futures. MGEX gains were limited some by abundant supplies of high-protein wheat at the end of harvest. KCBT December wheat led the way with a 39 cent gain to $7.32/bu. CBOT December wheat gained 37 cents to $6.83/bu and MGEX added 25 cents to $7.25/bu. CBOT December corn gained 3 cents to $4.54/bu and CBOT November soybeans added 5 cents to $13.20/bu.
  • The KCBT December contract closed Friday with a 7 cent premium to MGEX December. It is the first time since September 2007 that the HRW contract was greater than the HRS contract. High protein HRW is more expensive than lower protein HRS at both ports.
  • Frost struck Argentina's wheat belt on Tuesday, which analysts said could damage 2013/14 yields and turn global buyers to U.S. wheat.
  • The China National Grain and Oils Information Center said in a report this week that China is likely to import 7.5 MMT of wheat in 2013/14. If realized, it would be the most imports since 1995/96. USDA currently forecasts China’s imports at 9.5 MMT.
  • Weekly U.S commercial sales of 620,200 MT were down 12 percent from the previous week, but up 1 percent from the prior 4-week average, and within trade expectations of 500,000 to 700,000 MT. Total known outstanding sales and accumulated exports of all classes of wheat for the 2013/14 marketing year, through September 19, 2013 were 17.7 million metric tons (MMT), 38 percent greater than last year's year-to-date total. USDA forecasts 2013/14 U.S. wheat exports (including donations) to reach 29.9 MMT.
  • The Baltic Panamax Index rose from 1,453 last Friday to 1,800. The index has doubled since August 23. Demand from China has skyrocketed as the country stockpiles raw materials of all kinds.
  • The US Dollar Index fell from 80.55 last Friday to 80.37.

File Name
PR 130927.pdf
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