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October 7, 2011


(See attached file: PR 111007.pdf)(See attached file: PR 111007.xls)

Highlights:
  • Wheat futures traded mixed again this week with losses in Chicago and Kansas City and a gain in Minneapolis. USDA’s lower than expected HRS production estimates last week continue to support MGEX prices. External financial markets, improved weather conditions and a firm US dollar all contributed to the pressure on CBOT and KCBT futures. CBOT lost 4 cents to end the week at $6.08/bu and KCBT closed at $6.85/bu, down 20 cents from last week. MGEX gained 27 cents to close the week at $9.20/bu. The CBOT nearby corn contract gained 8 cents this week to close at $6.00/bu while the January soy contract lost 22 cents to end at $11.70/bu.
  • Stats Canada released its latest estimates of 2011/12 Canadian wheat production this week. The government statistical group forecasts Canada to produce 17.2 MMT of spring wheat, a reduction from last month of 122 TMT and down 1 percent from last year. The winter wheat forecast increased to 2.98 MMT, up 12 percent over last year, and durum production increased 191 TMT this month to 3.94 MMT, up 30 percent year over year. Total wheat was set at 24.2 MMT, up 4 percent from last year and 84 TMT greater than last month. The USDA’s current forecast for Canadian production is 24.0 MMT.
  • Analytical firm Informa Economics released its updated world wheat estimates Wednesday, increasing its 2011/12 global wheat production estimate by 3.1 MMT to 683.4 MMT. Greater production estimates for Canada, Kazakhstan and Australia accounted for the increase. The Canadian production forecast increased 1.1 MMT to 25.2 MMT, Kazakhstan and Australia each increased 1.0 MMT to 17.0 MMT and 26.0 MMT, respectively.
  • In its report released this week, European Union grain industry lobby Coceral increased its 2011 soft wheat production forecast for the 27-country bloc. Coceral estimates production at 128.4 MMT, an increase of 1.9 MMT from its July forecast and 0.5 MMT greater than last year.
  • The Baltic Panamax Index gained this week due to increased coal demand from China. The index closed at 1,913 on Friday, up from 1,726 last week.
  • Despite early week gains, the dollar closed virtually unchanged this week. It remains at its highest point since mid-February. The ICE Dollar Index stood at 78.63 on Friday, up from 78.60 a week ago.

File Name
PR 111007.pdf
PR 111007.xls
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