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April 1, 2016
  • A slightly bullish Prospective Plantings report from USDA supported wheat futures this week and led to a 3% increase in MGEX nearby contracts. A weaker U.S. dollar also underpinned the market. Forecasted rainfall for the dry southern U.S. Plains and the abundant global wheat supply provided limited pressure. CBOT May wheat grew 13 cents on the week to $4.76/bu, KCBT added 6 cents to $4.78/bu and MGEX climbed 17 cents to $5.29/bu. CBOT May corn lost 16 cents to $3.54/bu and CBOT May soybeans increased 8 cents to $9.18/bu.
  • The basis for spring and white wheat softened this week pressured by increased farmer selling and slow export demand. Winter wheat basis remained flat week over week.
  • In its weekly Export Sales Report, USDA reported net sales of 317,200 metric tons (MT) for delivery in marketing year 2015/16, which were 14% lower than the previous week. Sales were within trade expectations of 150,000 to 350,000 MT and 1% higher than prior 4-week average. Total known outstanding sales and accumulated exports of all wheat classes for marketing year 2015/16, through Mar. 24, 2016, were 19.2 million metric tons (MMT), 16% lower than last year's year-to-date total of 22.9 MMT.
  • In its annual Prospective Plantings report, USDA provided the first estimates for 2016/17 U.S. spring wheat and durum planted area. U.S. spring wheat planted area will decline to an estimated 11.3 million acres, a 14% decrease from 2015/16 and the lowest planted spring wheat area since 1972, if realized. U.S. durum planted area will rise to 2.00 million acres, up 3% from 2015/16. USDA expects total U.S. wheat planted area to fall to 49.5 million acres down 9% year over year, if realized.
  • USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks report stated the Dec. 2015-Feb. 2016 indicated disappearance totaled 10.2 MMT, down 4% from the same time period last year. All wheat stored in all positions totaled 37.3 MMT, up 20% from Mar. 1, 2015 with off-farm stocks accounting for 77% of the total.
  • The International Grains Council pegged 2016/17 world wheat production at 713 MMT, down 3% from the 2015/16 record high, if realized.
  • The Baltic Panamax Index rose to 429, up 7% from last week’s close of 401.
  • The Dollar Index fell to 94.65, a 1% decline from 96.08 last Friday.
  • Current HRS price indications are for Northern Spring. Dark Northern Spring is available, but premiums vary. Soft red winter (SRW) indications are for a minimum falling number of 250. Higher minimum specifications will carry a premium.

File Name
PR 160401.pdf
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