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April 23, 2010

(See attached file: PR 100423.pdf)(See attached file: PR 100423.xls)

  • It was an erratic week for futures prices. The CBOT May wheat contract fell 23 cents on Monday, wiping out last week’s gains, but rallied the following day with an 18-cent gain. Prices rallied again on Thursday due to short-covering, posting an additional 11-cent gain and reaching a 7-week high. Overall, the markets were mixed on the week, with CBOT nearbys up 2 cents from last week, closing at $4.93/bu. KCBT prices were pressured by good weather and good crop conditions and lost 1 cent on the week, closing at $5.05/bu. In Minneapolis, prices received support from favorable loan rates for durum wheat, implying less acreage for HRS. MGEX gained 6 cents on the week, closing at $5.26/bu. Soybeans received a boost from aggressive Chinese buying and were up 14 cents to $10.00/bu. CBOT corn prices were down 11 cents, to $3.53/bu, due to the rapid planting pace in the past week.
  • In their first complete grains supply and demand projections, the International Grains Council (IGC) pegged 2010/11 global grain production at 1,762 MMT and consumption at 1,769 MMT. This would be the first time since 2006/07 that total grain consumption will exceed production. The IGC anticipates 2010/11 global wheat production to fall 2.5 percent, to 658 MMT, while consumption is expected to increase 1.4 percent, to a record 654 MMT.
  • USDA announced their wheat by class loan rates on Wednesday. The 2010 national average wheat loan rate is $2.94/bu, up from $2.75/bu in 2009. The 2010 durum loan rate increased sharply, by $1.50/bu to $6.08/bu. The sharp increase could result in increased planted durum acres as spring planting progresses.
  • Warm, dry weather across the Corn Belt allowed for significant planting progress last week. The latest Crop Progress report released April 19 by NASS indicated that 20 percent of the spring wheat crop is planted, up from 6 percent last year and the 5-year average of 14 percent. Corn plantings are also off to a very fast start, with 19 percent of the corn crop planted, compared to 5 percent this time last year. Winter wheat conditions improved by 4 percentage points, with 69 percent of the crop in either good or excellent condition. This is the highest rating for this time of year since 2005.
  • The Baltic Panamax Index eased this week, closing at 3,757, down from 4,034 a week ago. Chinese iron ore shipments, which has been the primary driver of the index, were slower in the past week and weighed on the market. Destination routes were also lower, with Gulf/Japan at $70/mt and Pnw Japan at $41/mt.

File Name
PR 100423.pdf
PR 100423.xls
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