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December 9, 2011


(See attached file: PR 111209.pdf) (See attached file: PR 111209.xls)

Highlights:
  • All three wheat futures markets closed down this week amid continued uncertainty surrounding the European debt crisis and a mostly bearish USDA report released Friday. In its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE), USDA increased world wheat supply estimates, including a 6.0 MMT production increase for wheat worldwide and a 5.9 MMT increase in global ending stocks. The U.S. export sales forecast decreased 1.3 MMT to 25.2 MMT. The CBOT December contract closed 6 percent lower than last week, down 39 cents to $5.74/bu. KCBT lost 22 cents on the week to close at $6.53/bu and MGEX closed at $8.43/bu, down 13 cents. The CBOT nearby corn contract closed nearly unchanged, down 1 cent on the week to $5.86/bu and the CBOT soybean contract closed at $11.07/bu, down 29 cents since last Friday.
  • Australia expects to produce a record 28.3 MMT of wheat in 2011/12, according to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES). The government’s chief commodities forecaster raised its estimate 2.1 MMT this week from 26.2 MMT in September, due largely to favorable growing conditions and a production rebound in Western Australia, the country’s largest wheat growing state. Heavy rain is threatening the quality of the crop and increasing the possibility that large portions of the wheat will be downgraded to feed wheat. Australia is on track to export a record 21.6 MMT, up 6 percent from ABARES’ September estimate and greater than the previous record of 19.2 MMT set in 1996/97.
  • Total Canadian wheat production is up 9 percent in 2011/12 at 25.3 MMT, according to a survey released by Statistics Canada on Tuesday. After a 14 percent dip in total production in 2010, the rebound is helped by a 38 percent increase in durum output to 4.2 MMT.
  • Improved weather conditions in key wheat-producing regions of Argentina led the Rosario Grains Exchange on Wednesday to increase its 2011/12 wheat production forecast. In its monthly report, the exchange increased the total wheat production estimate to 12.8 MMT, up from the previous forecast of 12.4 MMT. In its WASDE released Friday, USDA increased its estimate of Argentine production from 13.0 MMT to 14.5 MMT.
  • In its first estimate for the 2012/13 marketing year, the French Farm Ministry forecast winter wheat planted area to rise 1.2 percent on the year to 5.06 million hectares. If realized, it would be 3.4 percent greater than the five-year average and equal the record level set in 2008. Plantings are virtually complete in France, according to the ministry.
  • The Baltic Panamax index gained less than 1 percent this week, rates being mostly unchanged due to increasing vessel supply and limited interest. The index closed at 1,713 on Friday, down from 1,701 last week.
  • The ICE Dollar Index fell this week to 78.63 on Friday, down from 78.73 last week.

File Name
PR 111209.pdf
PR 111209.xls
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