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March 6, 2009

(See attached file: PR 090306.pdf) (See attached file: PR 090306.xlsx)

Highlights:
  • Futures ended the week higher as traders begin to focus on the developing drought situation in parts of the southern Plains. However, gains were limited due to continued economic weakness and strength in the dollar. For the week, nearby CBOT futures were up 6 cents/bu, KCBT was 16 cents/bu higher, while the MGE closed 5 cents/bu higher at $6.31/bu. Corn futures closed marginally higher at $3.53/bu while soybeans closed up 5 cents/bu at $8.79/bu.
  • Export sales of 285,200 metric tons (MT) were down 39 percent from the previous week and 30 percent from the prior 4-week average, and below trade expectations. SRW sales of 43,200 MT were unimpressive, but year-to-date sales of 4.9 MMT are 95 percent of USDA total projection. Commitments for all wheat classes to date of 24.3 MMT are 90 percent of total projected exports, down from the 5-year average of 93 percent of exports committed by this date.
  • Dry weather in the southern Plains continued to stress the new HRW crop. Texas crop conditions continue to worsen with 63 percent of crop rated very poor to poor, which is the lowest level since 2006. Oklahoma‚Äôs wheat conditions are seen lower this week amid inadequate moisture. USDA reported 42 percent of the OK winter wheat crop poor to very poor, down from 36 percent in January and 23 percent this time last year.
  • The Baltic Panamax index continued to rally this week as renewed iron ore demand in China moved the index 44 percent higher to close at 2,230. The Baltic P2A Atlantic/Gulf Panamax index to Asia ended the week 38 percent higher at 28,393 and has more than doubled since the beginning of the year. The P3A Pacific to Asia index nearly doubled to close at 14,313. Gains in the cash market were not as significant as the indexes, but still the highest level in months. Gulf/Japan moved $3/MT higher at $44/MT and Pacific/Japan was seen $2/MT higher at $22/MT.
  • The ICE dollar index touched new highs this week before moving lower Friday to close the week mostly unchanged at 88.5. The ICE index is up 10 percent year-to-date and up more than 20 percent over the past 12 months.

File Name
PR 090306.pdf
PR 090306.xlsx
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