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July 11, 2014
  • Wheat future closed down sharply this week except for the nearby MGEX contract that surged on the last day before expiry. USDA increased its US and world production forecasts in a monthly report, adding to near record supply that was already weighing on markets. Increasing harvest pressure, weak export demand and spillover weakness in corn markets also pushed futures lower. Favorable weather and excellent growing conditions for HRS added pressure to MGEX contracts. The nearby MGEX contract ended 77 cents higher on the week at $7.38/bu but the September contract fell 45 cents since last Friday to close at $6.28. CBOT July fell 53 cents to $5.15/bu and KCBT July fell 63 cents to $6.34/bu. CBOT July corn dropped 17 cents to $3.99/bu and CBOT July soybeans fell 92 cents to $12.96/bu.
  • The MGEX July contract, which expires on Monday July 14, surged nearly $1.00/bu on Friday but had very limited volume of just 9 contracts. The September contract kept with the trend of CBOT and KCBT contracts, falling 13 cents on the day.
  • In its monthly WASDE update on Friday, USDA increased its world production forecast by 3.55 MMT to 705 MMT, including a 1.36 increase in the U.S. production estimate. USDA raised world demand by 1.0 MMT to 700 MMT and increased carryout stocks by 930,000 MT to 190 MMT. Estimated U.S. exports were lowered from 25.2 MMT to 24.5 MMT.
  • USDA reported winter wheat harvest was 57% complete as of July 6, up from 55% on the same date last year but below the five-year average of 60%.
  • USDA reported weekly net sales of 338,100 MT for the 2014/15 marketing year, were below trade expectations of 400,000 to 635,000 MT. Total known outstanding sales and accumulated exports of all classes of wheat, through July 3, 2014 were 8.17 MMT, 23 percent lower than last year's year-to-date total of 10.6 MMT. USDA forecasts 2013/14 U.S. wheat exports (including donations) to reach 25.2 MMT.
  • The Baltic Panamax Index rose since last Friday, up from 557 to 679.
  • The US Dollar Index closed mostly unchanged, down from 80.26 last Friday to 80.24.

File Name
PR 140711.pdf
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