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March 18, 2016
  • A softening U.S. dollar and short-covering extended the wheat futures rally this week. Technical selling and precipitation forecast for the dry U.S. Southern Plains limited gains. CBOT May wheat rose 2 cents to $4.63/bu, KCBT added a penny to $4.69/bu and MGEX climbed 11 cents to $5.09/bu. CBOT May corn increased 8 cents to $3.67/bu and CBOT May soybeans grew 19 cents to close $8.97/bu for the week.
  • Steady farmer selling continued to pressure basis across the United States. The Columbia-Snake River system opens this weekend after a two-week closure for planned maintenance. The Great Lakes-St. Lawrence Seaway will reopen on March 31.
  • In its weekly Export Sales Report, USDA reported net sales of 212,900 metric tons (MT) for delivery in marketing year 2015/16, which were 36% lower than the previous week. Sales were below trade expectations of 250,000 to 500,000 MT and 35% lower than prior 4-week average. Total known outstanding sales and accumulated exports of all wheat classes for marketing year 2015/16, through Mar. 10, 2016, were 18.6 million metric tons (MMT), 18% lower than last year's year-to-date total of 22.6 MMT.
  • The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released updated weather outlooks for the spring growing season, predicting above-normal precipitation for the Southern Plains and Mississippi River basin, which grow hard red winter (HRW) and soft red winter (SRW). NOAA also forecast warmer than normal weather through June for most of the United States, with the exception of the Southern Plains.
  • FranceAgriMer rated 92% of the 2016/17 French wheat in good or excellent condition, down one percentage point from the prior week.
  • According to a Reuters report, India’s wheat production could fall by 14% to 93.8 million metric tons (MMT) in 2016/17 due to warm, dry conditions at planting and hailstorms that hit its major wheat producing regions earlier this month.
  • The Baltic Panamax Index rose to 392 up 2% from last week’s close of 384.
  • The Dollar Index fell to 95.10 down from 96.14 last Friday.
  • Current HRS price indications are for Northern Spring. Dark Northern Spring is available, but premiums vary. Soft red winter (SRW) indications are for a minimum falling number of 250. Higher minimum specifications will carry a premium

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PR 160318.pdf
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