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December 1, 2017
  • Slow exports during the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday week and a strengthening U.S. dollar pressured wheat futures lower this week. Concerns about monsoon rains falling on mature wheat in Australia lent support. CBOT December wheat fell 13 cents to $4.14/bu, KCBT slipped 1 cent to $4.20/bu and MGEX dropped 24 cents to $6.10/bu. CBOT December corn added 2 cents to $3.45/bu and CBOT January soybeans grew 4 cents to $9.94/bu.
  • Export basis for December shipment is supported by increased demand for freight and export capacity as corn and soybean harvest across the United States finishes up. Protein export basis for 12.0% protein (12% moisture basis) HRW at the Gulf increased sharply this week, due to increased demand from both domestic mills and exporters. With the U.S. holiday, farmer selling has ground to a halt, further supporting export basis.
  • USDA’s weekly Export Sales Report included net wheat sales of 184,400 metric tons (MT) for marketing year 2017/18. Sales were below trade expectations of 250,000 to 450,000 MT. Total known outstanding sales and accumulated exports of all classes of wheat for 2017/18, through November 23, 2017, were 17.2 million metric tons (MMT), 9% behind last year's year-to-date total. USDA expects 2017/18 U.S. wheat exports to reach 27.2 MMT.
  • On November 27, USDA reported winter wheat emergence was 92% complete, in line with the 5-year average. USDA rated 50% of the winter wheat crop in good to excellent condition, down from 52% last week. Twelve percent of winter wheat is rated in poor or very poor condition. However, conditions in top HRW-producing states of Montana, South Dakota, Oklahoma and Texas are deteriorating prior to full dormancy. This is the last weekly crop progress report from USDA for 2017.
  • The November 30 U.S. Drought Monitor showed beneficial rains fell across the Pacific Northwest. However, drought conditions continue to worsen in Texas, Oklahoma and Arkansas. In the U.S. Northern Plains, 72% of Montana and 49% of South Dakota remain in moderate to extreme drought.
  • Heavy rains forecast over the weekend are expected to impact nearly 4 MMT of unharvested Australian wheat.
  • On November 30, Bolsa de Cereales, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, reported Argentine wheat harvest is 31% complete, up from 21% last week. Bolsa forecasts total Argentine wheat production at 17.0 MMT.
  • FranceAgriMer reported durum planting is 99% complete. French winter wheat is rated 96% good to excellent condition, unchanged from the prior week. French durum condition fell slightly to 83% good to excellent from 85% last week.
  • Reuters reported Russia’s winter grain sowings are in worse condition than the prior year. Russian farmers planted winter wheat on 17.1 million hectares (42.2 million acres).
  • The Baltic Index rose to 1578, up from the prior week’s close of 1458.
  • The Dollar Index increased to 93.05 from last Friday’s close of 92.78.

File Name
PR 171201.pdf
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