USW of FacebookUSW on TwitterUSW on YouTube
March 11, 2016
  • Short-covering and a weaker U.S. dollar extended last week’s wheat futures rally into this week, creating the longest consecutive rally since April 2014. Dry conditions across Kansas and Oklahoma provided additional support. CBOT and KCBT March wheat rose 3%, while MGEX March wheat grew 2% week over week. CBOT and KCBT March wheat both added 15 cents to close at $4.70/bu and $4.72/bu, respectively. MGEX March wheat climbed 9 cents to $5.12/bu this week. CBOT March corn increased 11 cents to $3.66/bu and CBOT March soybeans increased 17 cents to finish the week at $8.88/bu.
  • Basis softened further this week due to increased farmer selling. The Columbia-Snake River system is closed for routine maintenance now through March 19, providing limited support for nearby soft white (SW) basis.
  • In its weekly Export Sales Report, USDA reported net sales of 330,600 metric tons (MT) for delivery in marketing year 2015/16, which were 4% lower than the previous week. Sales were in line with trade expectations of 200,000 to 500,000 MT and 6% higher than prior 4-week average. Total known outstanding sales and accumulated exports of all wheat classes for marketing year 2015/16, through Mar. 3, 2016, were 18.3 million metric tons (MMT), 18% lower than last year's year-to-date total of 22.2 MMT.
  • In its March WASDE, USDA cut its estimate for global ending stocks by 1.28 MMT to 238 MMT based on lower production in India and Australia. That forecast is still 11% higher than last year and would be record-setting. USDA said Indian 2015/16 wheat production will fall to an estimated 86.5 MMT, down 10% year over year. Egyptian consumption will remain flat at an estimated 19.2 MMT.
  • The European Commission pegged the European Union’s 2016/17 wheat production at 142 MMT, 5% lower than 2015/16. EU wheat exports are forecast to fall 2.00 MMT in 2016/17.
  • The Baltic Panamax Index rose to 384, its highest point in nearly two months and 12% higher than last week’s close of 342.
  • The Dollar Index fell to 96.14 down 1% from to 97.31 last Friday.
  • Current HRS price indications are for Northern Spring. Dark Northern Spring is available, but premiums vary. Soft red winter (SRW) indications are for a minimum falling number of 250. Higher minimum specifications will carry a premium.

File Name
PR 160311.pdf
2008-2013 U.S. Wheat Associates. All Rights Reserved
CCBot/2.0 ( - Is Mobile: Privacy Policy | Non-Discrimination Statementfalse