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June 24, 2011

(See attached file: PR 110624.pdf)(See attached file: PR 110624.xls)

  • Futures traded sharply lower this week, falling for a fourth consecutive week as seasonal harvest pressure and beneficial rainfall in the EU pushed prices down. Fund selling and a strengthening dollar also added pressure. The CBOT July contract lost 36 cents from last week, closing at $6.35/bu. KCBT July contract was down 56 cents, to $7.48/bu, while the MGEX nearby contract fell by 71 cents, to $8.26/bu. Corn and soybean prices were also lower on a strong dollar and fund selling. CBOT July corn lost 30 cents, to $6.70/bu, and the July soybean contract fell by 12 cents, to $13.20/bu.
  • Statistics Canada released its latest acreage estimates this week. The agency estimated all-wheat acreage at 23.6 million acres, up 12 percent from last year, but down from April’s estimate of 24.7 million acres. The total included 17.5 million acres of spring wheat and 4.4 million acres of durum. The reduction from April’s projection was due to spring flooding that took many acres out of production.
  • Ukraine’s Agriculture Ministry raised its 2011 grain harvest projection to 50 MMT, which is up from the previous forecast of over 45 MMT. The government also expects increased total grain exports, which are currently projected at 21.6 MMT, up from 12.0 MMT in 2010/11.
  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that heavy rains could reduce Argentina’s 2011/12 wheat planted area. The exchange currently estimates planted area at 4.95 million hectares, but said it will not rule out a reduction with the optimal planting window soon closing. Planting progress is currently estimated at 52 percent complete, up from 43 percent this time last year.
  • The ICE Dollar Index climbed sharply higher on Wednesday after falling on Monday and Tuesday. The index fell to 74.54 on Tuesday, but finished the week at 75.67, up from 74.98 a week ago. The stronger dollar contributed to significant losses in wheat futures on Wednesday, when the CBOT July contract lost 36 cents on the day.
  • Freight rates were down slightly this week, with the Baltic Panamax Index losing 150 points this week and closing at 1,764. The Gulf/Japan and PNW/Japan rates were down by $1/MT, to $53/MT and $30/MT, respectively.

File Name
PR 110624.pdf
PR 110624.xls
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