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December 2, 2016
  • Continued U.S. dollar strength weighed heavily on wheat futures this week. Strong export demand during the U.S. holiday week and dry conditions in the U.S. Plains and southeastern U.S. gave limited support to KCBT and CBOT, which finished the week lower, but lifted MGEX futures. Between Nov. 18 and Dec. 2, CBOT December wheat declined 20 cents to $3.87/bu, KCBT lost 24 cents to $3.90/bu and MGEX climbed 14 cents to $5.43/bu. CBOT December corn fell 8 cents to $3.37/bu and CBOT January soybeans grew 34 cents to $10.27/bu.
  • Nearby export basis remained steady this week with most elevation capacity booked for the rest of 2016 year. Slow farmer selling and strong export demand continue to support basis. The Columbia-Snake river system closure for planned maintenance will begin Dec. 16. The Great Lakes-St. Lawrence Seaway System will close for the season on Dec. 20 and will reopen at the end of March.
  • USDA’s weekly Export Sales Report included net wheat sales of 483,500 metric tons (MT) for marketing year 2016/17. Sales were in line with trade expectations of 300,000 to 500,000 MT. Total known outstanding sales and accumulated exports of all classes of wheat for 2016/17, through Nov. 24, 2016, were 18.9 million metric tons (MMT), 30% higher than a total of 14.5 MMT last year on this date. USDA expects 2016/17 U.S. wheat exports to reach 26.5 MMT.
  • As of Nov. 28, U.S. winter wheat planting is complete; 92% of the crop had emerged compared to 89% last week. USDA rated 58% of the winter wheat crop in good to excellent condition, unchanged from last week. However, it should be noted that among southeastern soft red winter (SRW)-producing states, weekly wheat condition reports are only available for North Carolina and Arkansas.
  • The Nov. 29 U.S. Drought Monitor shows drought conditions continue to worsen in the southeastern United States. Dry conditions also continue to build in western parts of the U.S. Plains ahead of winter dormancy.
  • Favorable dry weather across much of Australia allowed wheat maturity and harvest to advance according to USDA’s International Weather and Crop Summary.
  • On Dec. 1, Bolsa de Cereales, the Argentine Grain Exchange, reported harvest was 29% complete, up from 18% last week. Rain fell on ripe wheat in the northern part of the country delaying the final stages of harvest and causing concern about sprout damage. Losses from hail during grain fill were recorded in Cordoba. The average yield to date is 2.55 metric ton per hectare (MT/ha) (37.9 bu/acre) compared to 2.35 MT/ha (35.0 bu/acre) on the same date last year.
  • According to Reuters, logistical problems are constraining Ukraine wheat exports with daily demand for rail cars estimated at 3,700 cars compared to the estimate of only 2,200 cars available each day.
  • On Dec. 2, FranceAgriMer reported winter wheat planting is 99% complete in France, up 51% from the prior week, and 91% of the crop had emerged compared to 84% last week and 96% in 2015.
  • The Baltic Index rose to 1196, up 14 points from last week’s close of 1181.
  • The Dollar Index fell to 100.76, down 1% from 101.49 last Friday.
  • Current hard red spring (HRS) price indications are for Northern Spring. Dark Northern Spring is available, but premiums vary. SRW indications are for a minimum falling number of 250. Higher minimum specifications will carry a premium.

File Name
PR 161202.pdf
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