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April 16, 2010

(See attached file: PR 100416.pdf)(See attached file: PR 100416.xls)

Highlights:
  • Wheat prices climbed higher this week, led by a rally on Friday when the CBOT May contract gained 10 cents. Short covering supported prices throughout the week, along with spillover from gains in soybean prices. The CBOT May contract finished the week 24 cents higher than last week to close at $4.90/bu, its highest close in over a month. The KCBT May contract gained 23 cents, closing at $5.06/bu. MGEX was up 18 cents, to $5.20/bu. CBOT soybean prices made substantial gains following rumors China may make large oilseed purchases in June. The CBOT May soybean contract gained 33 cents this week, closing at $9.85/bu. Corn prices were also up this week, gaining 18 cents to close at $3.64/bu.
  • UkrAgroConsult expects a smaller wheat crop in the Black Sea region for 2010/11, projecting reduced production in Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan. The firm estimates 2010/11 wheat production in the region will be between 87.5-91.5 MMT, compared to 99.6 MMT in 2009/10.
  • French analyst Strategie Grains reduced their 2009/10 ending stocks forecast for the EU, reducing it by 1.7 MMT to 14.6 MMT. The analyst noted the change was due to an increased projection in EU exports following the weakening of the euro in recent weeks. Looking at the 2010/11 crop year, Strategie Grains anticipates a 4.5 MMT increase in EU production, from 129.7 MMT in 2009/10 to 134.2 MMT in 2010/11.
  • USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) and the Texas Department of Agriculture released their preliminary wheat production estimate for Texas, projecting the Texas wheat crop for 2010/11 at 112.2 million bushels (3.1 MMT). This is up 83 percent from last year and, if reached, would be the largest Texas crop since 2007/08 (140 million bushels). NASS rates the Texas crop at 58 percent in either excellent or good condition, compared to 12 percent a year ago.
  • A weakening dollar contributed to the gains in wheat prices this week. The Dollar ICE Index stood at 80.78 on Friday, down from 81.09 a week ago. The index fell to as low as 80.19 on Wednesday, its lowest point in a month.
  • The Baltic Panamax Index closed higher again this week, closing at 4,034, which is up from 3,952 last week. The index has climbed in recent weeks due to steady Chinese demand for coal and iron ore, despite concerns earlier in the week that China may ban low-grade iron ore imports.

File Name
PR 100416.pdf
PR 100416.xls
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