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July 10, 2015
  • Wheat futures closed lower this week on plentiful world supply and seasonal harvest pressure. Poor export demand thus far in marketing year 2015/16 added pressure. A USDA prediction for the largest HRS crop in 20 years further limited MGEX contracts. Stressful weather concerns in Europe, Canada and Australia limited losses. CBOT July wheat lost 4 cents to close at $5.82/bu, KCBT fell 19 cents to $5.58/bu and MGEX decreased 9 cents to close at $5.97/bu. CBOT July corn added 8 cents to $4.27/bu and CBOT Soybeans dropped 2 cents to $10.44.
  • Current HRS price indications are for Northern Spring only. Premiums for Dark Northern Spring will vary. SRW indications are for a minimum falling number of 250. Higher minimum specifications will carry a premium.
  • In its weekly crop progress report, USDA rated 70% of the spring wheat crop as good or excellent as of July 5, down from 72% the prior week and even with a year earlier. USDA reported 76% of the crop as headed, well above the 5-year average of 47%.
  • It its July world agricultural supply and demand estimates, USDA increased projected 2015/16 world production by 400,000 MT to 722 MMT, which would be down from the record 726 MMT in 2014/15 but the second highest on record. Estimated global consumption decreased 5.4 MMT to 714 MMT, based on reduced wheat feeding in China. Predicted global ending stocks increased 17.4 MMT to 220 MMT, due to increased beginning stocks and reduced consumption. USDA increased projected U.S. production, exports, beginning and ending stocks. HRS production will reach 15.6 MMT, which was higher than trade expectations and would be the largest crop since 1996/97, according to USDA.
  • According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's weekly Export Sales Report, net sales of 345,900 MT for delivery in marketing year 2015/2016 were down 5% from the previous week and were within trade expectations of 300,000 to 500,000 MT. Total known outstanding sales and accumulated exports of all classes of wheat, through July 2, 2015 were 6.19 MMT, 24% lower than last year's year-to-date total of 8.17 MMT. USDA forecasts 2015/16 U.S. wheat exports to reach 25.9 MMT.
  • The Baltic Panamax Index closed at 1,052 on Friday, up 19% from last week’s 883. The index has doubled since closing at 524 on March 29.
  • The US Dollar Index closed at 95.97, down from 96.26 last Friday.

File Name
PR 150710.pdf
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