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November 13, 2015
  • Following a bearish World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report from USDA and forecasts for much needed precipitation in the U.S. Midwest, MGEX wheat futures fell 3% on the week and CBOT and KCBT dropped 5%, the largest single week losses since July. Weak export demand brought on by a strong U.S. dollar and a record large global wheat supply provided additional pressure. CBOT December wheat futures lost 28 cents on the week to close at $4.98/bu, KCBT fell 25 cents to $4.65/bu and MGEX dropped 13 cents to $5.05/bu. CBOT December corn decreased 15 cents to $3.58/bu and CBOT November soybeans declined 12 cents to $8.59/bu.
  • Current hard red spring (HRS) price indications are for Northern Spring. Dark Northern Spring is available, but premiums vary. Soft red winter (SRW) indications are for a minimum falling number of 250. Higher minimum specifications will carry a premium.
  • Basis firmed across the United States on the downturn in the wheat futures markets and a lack of farmer selling. As a result of limited farmer selling, U.S. internal freight prices softened this week for the Pacific Northwest and Gulf. Lake Superior freight and the corresponding basis rose this week with the final push to get shipments out before the Great Lakes freeze and the Welland Canal closes in December.
  • According to USDA’s Nov. 9 weekly crop progress report, winter wheat planting in the United States is 92% complete with 80% emergence, on pace with the 5-year averages. USDA estimates 51% of the crop is in good or excellent condition, compared to 60% last year, while 38% is fair and 11% is in poor or very poor condition.
  • In its weekly Export Sales Report, USDA reported net sales of 226,670 metric tons (MT) for delivery in marketing year 2015/16, which was up noticeably from the previous week, but down 38% from the prior 4-week average and within trade expectations of 150,000 to 350,000 MT. Total known outstanding sales and accumulated exports of all classes of wheat for marketing year 2015/16, through Nov. 5, 2015 were 13.1 million metric tons (MMT), 17% lower than last year's year-to-date total of 15.8 MMT.
  • In the November WASDE, USDA projected global wheat production at 733 MMT; that would be the third consecutive record crop. USDA estimates global wheat consumption also will reach a new record, 715 MMT, 4% above the 5-year average. U.S. wheat exports are forecast to fall to 21.8 MMT, down 5% from the October estimate, and the lowest level in 44 years, if realized.
  • U.S. wheat producers enrolled in subsidy programs reported prevented plantings for Nov. 13 at 698,000 acres, up 1,000 acres from the October report. U.S. planted acreage for wheat, including failed acres totaled 52.7 million, a 1% decrease from this time last year.
  • As of Nov. 5, Ukrainian agriculture consultancy UkrAgroConsult reported the share of Ukrainian winter crops rated in good condition declined to 29% from 41% at the same time last year with only 59% emergence.
  • The Baltic Panamax Index closed at 579 on Friday, down 10% from 640 last week and the lowest level since March of this year.
  • The Dollar Index closed at 99.00, down slightly from 99.18 last Friday. At this time last year, the Dollar Index was 87.53.

File Name
PR 151113.pdf
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