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September 12, 2014
  • U.S. wheat futures notched sharp weekly losses and closed at a four year low on Friday. Updated USDA estimates increased already bearish world production and supply projections. Concerns that political tension might disrupt the Ukrainian grain market, a fear which had supported wheat futures periodically for months, eased for the second week in a row on reports of increased exports year-over-year. Forecast for improved weather in HRS regions and a stronger U.S. dollar added pressure to futures. MGEX September wheat fell 58 cents to $5.68/bu, KCBT dropped 48 cents to $5.72/bu and CBOT lost 33 cents to $4.98/bu. CBOT September corn fell 8 cents to $3.39/bu and CBOT September soybeans added 6 cents to close at $10.91/bu.
  • HRS quotes are currently for NS wheat, there may be additional premiums for DNS.
  • In its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, USDA increased its 2014/15 world production projection by 3.86 MMT to 720 MMT, which would be a new record and well above the 5-year average of 681 MMT. USDA upped its carry-in estimate by 2.79 MMT to 186 MMT and increased projected consumption by 3.22 MMT to a record 710 MMT. USDA expects carry-out stocks will be 196 MMT, 5 percent greater than 2013/14 and greater than the 5-year average of 192 MMT.
  • Ukraine‚Äôs agriculture ministry this week reported grain exports between July 1 and September 8, 2014 were 44% higher than the same period last year despite ongoing political conflict plaguing the region. Wheat accounted for 3.37 million of the 5.98 MMT in total grain exported.
  • USDA reported this week that U.S. spring wheat harvest is just 58% complete, well behind the 5-year average of 78%, due in large part to excessive rain in late August and early September. Forecasts call for improving conditions the rest of September.
  • The Baltic Panamax Index closed 56 points lower than last Friday at 875.
  • The US Dollar Index closed higher this week at 84.25, up from 83.71.

File Name
PR 140912.pdf
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