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February 1, 2013


(See attached file: PR 130201.pdf) (See attached file: PR 130201.xls)

Highlights:
  • Wheat futures closed lower this week after several volatile days of technical buying and selling. On Monday, technical buying and better than expected export data led to a rally but profit taking efforts after an early session rally on Tuesday pushed markets lower. On Wednesday, a weaker dollar pushed all three wheat contracts higher but technical selling on Thursday and Friday took back Wednesday’s gains and left wheat futures lower for the week. A weak commercial sales reports pushed futures lower on Thursday. MGEX saw additional pressure from a Canadian report predicting large planted area but MGEX and KCBT’s weekly losses were limited by ongoing crop development issues. The MGEX March wheat contract fell 13 cents to $8.52/bu and CBOT closed at $7.65/bu, a 12 cent loss. KCBT lost 8 cents to close at $8.22/bu. CBOT March corn gained 15 cents to $7.36/bu and CBOT March soybeans closed at $14.74/bu, a 33 cent increase.
  • In anticipation of a good 2013 SRW harvest, old crop SRW basis levels eased a bit this week in an effort to sell existing stocks.
  • In its first planting forecast of the year, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada said the country will plant the biggest wheat area in 10 years in 2013. The federal department’s estimate for all-wheat planting is up 6 percent from last year to 25.3 million acres. It forecasts production at 28.5 MMT. The department attributed the increase to higher wheat prices and a shift away from canola and other crops.
  • USDA reported net commercial sales of 293,600 MT this week, down 49 percent from the previous week and below trade estimates of 350,000 to 550,000 MT. Total known outstanding sales and accumulated exports of all classes of wheat for the 2012/13 marketing year, through January 24, 2013 are 20.7 million metric tons (MMT), 4 percent lower than last year's year-to-date total of 21.7 MMT.
  • The Baltic Panamax Index fell 7 percent this week to 664 on Friday. An oversupply of vessels continues to weigh on the index and poor weather in Australia and South Asia added pressure. Maritime Research's Grain Freight Index decreased this week from 499.0 to 496.5.
  • The US Dollar Index decreased this week from 79.82 to 79.14.

File Name
PR 130201.pdf
PR 130201.xls
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