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June 12, 2009

(See attached file: PR090612.pdf) (See attached file: PR090612.xlsx)
  • Futures traded down from last Friday’s close as a firm dollar and large supplies put pressure on wheat prices. July CBOT wheat futures dropped 6% (40 cents), closing at $5.83/bushel. July KCBT futures dropped 49 cents/bu, finishing at $6.37/bushel. MGE futures closed 14 cents/bu down from last week at $7.32/bushel. Soybeans gained 19 cents/bu on the week, closing at $12.44/bushel and corn lost 20 cents/bu to finish the week at $4.24/bushel.
  • The USDA released its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on Wednesday, June 10. The WASDE forecasts world wheat output at 656 million metric tons (MMT) for the marketing year 2009/10, down slightly from last month’s initial 2009/10 report. USDA raised its estimates from the previous month on the projected average farm price by 20 cents per bushel. USDA projects average farm prices will be between $4.90 and $5.90 per bushel. This increase is due to high feed grain and soybean prices, along with the decrease in estimated world output.
  • The USDA reported 44% of the winter wheat crop to be in good or excellent condition. This is down 1% from last week and below the 5-year average of 47%. Sprint wheat planting is 96% complete. Of that, 72% of the crop is in good or excellent conditions, up from 63% at this time last year.
  • The dollar ICE index was down slightly from last week, closing at 80.22. The dollar gained early in the week from better-than-expected data regarding job losses for May. The dollar declined towards the end of the week as investors looked for stronger yields from riskier investments.
  • Net weekly sales for the 2009/10 marketing year totaled 353.9 MMT, which fell above market expectations of 200-300 MMT. Sales were reported for Nigeria (71,600 MT), the Philippines (68,000 MT), Colombia (47,000 MT), South Korea (37,900 MT), and Indonesia (35,000 MT).
  • Freight indices came back down after reaching an 8-month high early last week. The Baltic Panamax Index closed at 2,754, down 15% from last week’s close of 3,252. The Atlantic/Gulf to Asia component of the BPI dropped 17%, closing at 29,900. The Pacific/Asia component was down 4%, closing at 22,886.

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