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September 25, 2009

(See attached file: PR 090925.pdf)(See attached file: PR 090925.xls)
  • Futures traded down this week. Short covering provided a rally to markets on Thursday, but expectations of a large global wheat supply continue to be a bearish factor on prices. CBOT December contracts closed at $4.49/bu, down 7 cents from last week. KCBT nearbys dropped 2 cents on the week, closing at $4.69/bu. MGEX December contracts dropped 10 cents on the week and finished at $4.86/bu. Corn closed 16 cents higher, at $3.34/bu, while CBOT November soybean contracts dropped 15 cents to $9.26/bu.
  • Price spreads between 13.5% and 14.0% protein hard red spring (HRS) wheat continue to widen due to a tight supply of higher protein wheat. Very few offers are currently available out of either the PNW or Gulf for wheat higher than 13.5% protein. Basis for 14% protein levels out of the Gulf is approximately $2.75, compared to $1.85 for 13.5% protein. This year’s HRS samples collected to date average 13.5% protein (12% moisture basis), well below the five-year average of 14.4%.
  • The International Grains Council (IGC) released their latest Grain Market Report on Thursday. IGC increased their global production estimate by 4 million metric tons (MMT to 666 MMT and increased projected output for the EU, Russia, and Ukraine due to better than expected yields.
  • The USDA reported that the spring wheat harvest is 85% complete for the week ending September 20, 2009. This is up from 69% last week, but below the 5-year average of 96%. In North Dakota, where severe floods delayed planting, the harvest is 77% complete, well below the five-year average of 95%.
  • Freight prices softened a bit this week, with the Baltic Panamax Index closing the week at 2,357. This is down 215 points from last week. Destination rates were also down slightly, with the PNW/Japan route at $29/mt and the Gulf/Japan at $56/mt.

File Name
PR 090925.pdf
PR 090925.xls
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