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July 21, 2017
  • Technical selling pushed CBOT and KCBT wheat futures lower this week as harvest nears completion in the southern half of the United States. Deteriorating hard red spring (HRS) crop conditions buoyed MGEX wheat higher. Strong export demand lent additional support. CBOT September wheat fell 11 cents to $4.99/bu, KCBT lost 17 cents to $4.96/bu and MGEX added 20 cents to $7.78/bu. CBOT September corn gained 3 cents to $3.80/bu and CBOT August soybeans climbed 20 cents to $10.09/bu.
  • Combines are rolling in nearly every state this week, slowing farmer sales and supporting export basis. Protein premiums continue to widen for hard red spring (HRS) and hard red winter (HRW) due to worsening drought conditions across the U.S. Northern Plains and Canadian Southern Plains. Strong export demand also supported export basis this week.
  • The Wheat Quality Council’s Hard Spring Wheat Tour across the U.S. Northern Plains starts on Monday, July 24. Follow the tour on Twitter at #wheattour17
  • USDA’s weekly Export Sales Report included net wheat sales of 669,500 metric tons (MT) for marketing year 2017/18. Sales were above trade expectations of 250,000 to 450,000 MT. Total known outstanding sales and accumulated exports of all classes of wheat for 2017/18, through July 14, 2017, were 9.42 million metric tons (MMT) up 2% from last year’s total of 9.26 MMT on this date, and 3% above the 5-year average. USDA expects 2017/18 U.S. wheat exports to reach 26.5 MMT.
  • On July 17, USDA reported winter wheat harvest is 75% complete, slightly ahead of the 5-year average pace of 73%. USDA rated 34% of the spring wheat crop in good to excellent condition, down slightly from last week; 41% of spring wheat is in poor or very poor condition. USDA reported 91% of spring wheat had headed, ahead of the 5-year average of 87%.
  • The July 18 U.S. Drought Monitor reported drought conditions ravaged crops across the U.S. Northern Plains. This week a storm system moved across the area, but rainfall amounts varied widely and did little to improve the soil moisture conditions. Topsoil moisture is rated short to very short in 88% of Montana, 85% of South Dakota, 65% of North Dakota and Nebraska, and 62% of Wyoming. Above normal temperatures are expected to continue through August.
  • FranceAgriMer rated 66% of French common wheat in good or excellent condition, unchanged over the last two weeks. Wheat harvest is 63% complete, up from 23% the prior week.
  • As of July 20, Bolsa de Cereales, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, reported Argentine farmers were 82% complete with wheat planting, up from 79% complete the prior week and on par with last year’s pace. Bolsa estimates Argentine wheat planted area will total 13.3 million acres (5.4 million hectares).
  • The Saskatchewan weekly crop report reported hot, dry conditions are damaging crops across the province. Topsoil moisture conditions there vary widely, with 3% of topsoil moisture rated as excessive and 65% rated as short or very short. In Alberta, 66% of spring wheat is rated in good to excellent condition compared to 73% last week. Surface soil moisture is rated 58% good to excellent, down slightly from last week; 10% is still rated excessive.
  • Reuters reported wheat harvest in Germany has been delayed by rain, which also threatens wheat quality.
  • The Baltic Index rose to 964, up 7% week over week.
  • The Dollar Index slipped to 94.15, down 1% from last Friday’s close of 95.15.
  • Current hard red spring (HRS) price indications are for Northern Spring. Dark Northern Spring is available, but premiums vary. SRW indications are for a minimum falling number of 250. Higher minimum specifications will carry a premium.

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PR 170721.pdf
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