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May 19, 2017
  • A weaker U.S. dollar and strong export demand supported wheat futures this week. Easing concerns about hard red winter (HRW) crop conditions pressured KCBT lower. CBOT July wheat added 2 cents to $4.35/bu, KCBT slipped 1 cent to $4.38/bu and MGEX grew 9 cents to $5.56/bu. CBOT July corn increased 1 cent to $3.72/bu and CBOT July soybeans lost 10 cents $9.53/bu.
  • Continued rain across HRW growing areas supported wider export protein premiums this week for both HRW and hard red spring. Soft wheat markets continue to wait for harvest with export basis slightly firmer to entice farmer selling.
  • USDA’s weekly Export Sales Report included net wheat sales of 247,600 metric tons (MT) for marketing year 2016/17. Sales were above trade expectations of 0 to 200,000 MT. Total known outstanding sales and accumulated exports of all classes of wheat for 2016/17, through May 11, 2017, were 28.2 million metric tons (MMT), 37% higher than a total of 20.6 MMT last year on this date, and 9% above the 5-year average. Year-to-date export sales match the current USDA 2016/17 U.S. wheat export projection of 28.2 MMT.
  • On May 15, USDA rated 51% of the winter wheat crop in good to excellent condition down 2 percentage points week over week; 17% of winter wheat is in poor or very poor condition up from 15% the prior week. USDA reported 63% of winter wheat had headed, compared to the 5-year average of 57%. Spring wheat planting is 78% complete, up from 54% last week and ahead of the 5-year average pace of 73% according to USDA data. Spring wheat emergence is 40% complete, compared to the 5-year average of 44%.
  • The USDA Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin reported cool, wet weather persisted across the U.S. Plains last week exacerbating wet field conditions and increasing concerns about protein content in HRW. Kansas, the top HRW-producer, received 1 to 3 inches (2.5 to 7.5 cm) of rain last week. The U.S. Northern Plains remained relatively dry allowing for good planting progress.
  • Stratégie Grains lowered its 2017/18 forecast for European Union wheat production to 143 MMT, down 1.10 MMT from last month’s forecast, but still 5% above 2016/17 total production. The analyst group noted dry conditions are decreasing yield potential in Spain, France, Belgium, and the U.K.
  • According to Reuters, Ukrainian spring wheat planting is 97% complete, up 3 percentage points from the prior week at 422,000 acres (171,000 hectares).
  • FranceAgriMer rated 75% of French common wheat in good or excellent condition, down slightly from the prior week despite recent rainfall.
  • Spring planting is underway in Canada. According to the Saskatchewan weekly crop report, spring planting is 35% complete in the Canadian province, up from 11% complete last week, and slightly ahead of the 5-year average pace of 33%. Spring wheat planting in Alberta is 31% complete, up from 14% complete last week. Roughly 460,000 acres (186,000 hectares) of overwintered crops still need to be harvested in the province according to the Alberta weekly crop report.
  • The USW Weekly Harvest Report is now available. To read the latest report, click here*
  • The Baltic Index fell to 957, down 5% from 1012 last week.
  • The Dollar Index decreased to 97.26, down 2% from last Friday’s close of 99.62.
  • Current hard red spring (HRS) price indications are for Northern Spring. Dark Northern Spring is available, but premiums vary. SRW indications are for a minimum falling number of 250. Higher minimum specifications will carry a premium.

File Name
PR 170519.pdf
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