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February 10, 2017
  • Wheat futures rose to a 7-month high this week after USDA increased its estimate for U.S. wheat exports and lowered global ending stocks. This week's strong export demand also lent support. CBOT March wheat climbed 19 cents to $4.49/bu, KCBT rose 20 cents to $4.60/bu and MGEX added 11 cents to $5.72/bu. CBOT March corn grew 9 cents to $3.74/bu and CBOT March soybeans increased 32 cents to $10.59/bu.
  • Exporters continue to work through the backlog of vessels driving a sharp inverse in export basis across the United States. Gulf exporters are slowly catching up after fog delayed barge deliveries in January. Logistical challenges continue to delay vessels in the PNW this week, after avalanches closed Rail disruptions across the U.S. Northern Plains continue to occur due to heavy snow and avalanches that are blocking mountain passes. For more information about rail service disruptions, click here*. The Columbia-Snake river system and the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence Seaway System will both reopen in March.
  • USDA’s weekly Export Sales Report included net wheat sales of 527,300 metric tons (MT) for marketing year 2016/17. Sales were above trade expectations of 300,000 to 500,000 MT. Total known outstanding sales and accumulated exports of all classes of wheat for 2016/17, through Feb. 2, 2017, were 23.4 million metric tons (MMT), 37% higher than a total of 17.0 MMT last year on this date, and 10% above the 5-year average. USDA expects 2016/17 U.S. wheat exports to reach 27.9 MMT.
  • The Feb. 9 U.S. Drought Monitor reported heavy snow fell in the West Coast and Northern Plains. The Midwest and Southern Plains were dry with above normal temperatures. The 5-day forecast expects moderate to heavy precipitation across the PNW and Northern Plains, but little precipitation is expected for the Midwest and Southern Plains.
  • USDA forecast 2016/17 world wheat production at 748 MMT, up 2% from the 2015/16 record of 736 MMT. If realized, it would be 6% above the 5-year average, and the fourth consecutive year of record world wheat production. Global trade will reach 179 MMT, 12% above the 5-year average. Global consumption will set a new record for the fourth consecutive year at 740 MMT. U.S. production totaled 62.9 MMT, up 12% from 2015/16. USDA believes U.S. exports will reach 27.9 MMT, up 32% year over year and 5% above the 5-year average.
  • Russian consultancy group IKAR pegged 2017/18 Russian wheat production at 67.5 MMT. That would be down 8% from 2016/17 production, if realized. IKAR expects 2017/18 Russian wheat exports to total 28.0 MMT, on par with their estimate for 2016/17.
  • Reuters reported that India has imported more than 5.10 MMT of wheat to date in 2016/17. The last time India imported significant volumes of wheat was 2006/07.
  • FranceAgriMer increased its projection for French wheat ending stocks to 2.75 MMT, up from its previous estimate of 2.60 MMT in January due to decreased exports with the European Union.
  • The Baltic Index fell to 707, down 8% from 770 last week.
  • The Dollar Index rose 1% week over week to 100.85.
  • Current hard red spring (HRS) price indications are for Northern Spring. Dark Northern Spring is available, but premiums vary. SRW indications are for a minimum falling number of 250. Higher minimum specifications will carry a premium.

File Name
PR 170210.pdf
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