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February 5, 2010

(See attached file: PR100205.pdf)(See attached file: PR100205.xls)

  • Wheat futures traded mixed this week, with CBOT and KCBT markets losing ground and MGEX closing higher. Prices rallied early in the week due to short covering, but a stronger dollar pushed prices back down by week’s end. The CBOT March wheat contract closed at $4.73/bu, down 1 cent from last week, while KCBT nearbys were down 2 cents, to $4.84/bu. MGEX gained 2 cents on the week, closing at $5.02/bu. Corn and soybeans were down, closing at $3.51/bu and $9.13/bu, respectively.
  • Statistics Canada released their December 2009 grain stocks estimates, reporting a 1.5 percent decline in total wheat stored from the previous year. Statistics Canada estimated total wheat stocks at 21.7 MMT, down from 22.0 MMT in 2008. The agency reported a 16.5 percent rise in durum stocks, from 4.8 MMT in December 2008 to 5.6 MMT in December 2009.
  • Commercial sales slowed down this week, falling 37 percent from the week prior, but still fell within trade expectations. Sales have been performing well recently, with the past three weeks’ sales accounting for 11 percent of MY 2009/10 year-to-date total. Sales for the week ending January 28 totaled 418,200 metric tons, with increases reported for Mexico (93,330 HRW, 47,709 HRS, 55,035 SRW), Japan (420 HRW, 38,930 HRS, 30,830 white), Thailand (10,000 HRW, 22,000 HRS, 13,000 white), Guatemala (16,952 HRW, 5,700 HRS, 4,250 white, 2,621 durum), Costa Rica (5,000 HRW, 10,000 HRS, 5,500 SRW), Ecuador (20,000 SRW), and Algeria (20,000 durum).
  • The Baltic Panamax Index (BPI) continued falling this week, closing at 3,141 on Friday. The BPI has fallen 26 percent since the second week of January and is at its lowest point since late October 2009. Destination rates were also lower, with Gulf/Japan at $64/mt and PNW/Japan at $36.
  • The Dollar ICE Index was stronger again this week, rising to 80.51 on Friday, which is up from last week’s close of 79.46. The index has gained 8 percent over the past two months.

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