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February 27, 2009


(See attached file: PR 090227.pdf) (See attached file: PR 090227.xlsx)

Highlights:
  • Futures ended the week mixed as dry conditions in the U.S. Plains supported prices, but bearish export news, improving conditions in China and a strong dollar kept futures mostly lower. For the week, nearby CBOT futures were off 9 cents/bu, KCBT was 4 cents/bu lower while the MGE closed slightly higher at $6.26/bu. Corn futures closed marginally higher at $3.51/bu while soybeans closed up 12 cents/bu at $8.75/bu.
  • USDA pegged 2009/10 US wheat area at 23.4 million hectares, down from 25.5 million hectares in 2008/09. Smaller plantings and projected lower yields are projected to result in a 10.3 MMT decline in production to 57.7 MMT. USDA projects a 1.4 MMT decline in U.S. exports and slightly higher domestic consumption of 34.5 MMT. Ending stocks for 2009/10 are projected slightly higher at 18.1 MMT.
  • Export sales of 465,400 metric tons were up 7 percent from last week, 56 percent better than the 4-week average and above trade expectations. HRW sales of 187,400 metric tons were strong with major sales to Nigeria (86,000), Taiwan (27,700) and Mexico (23,700). Commitments for all wheat classes to date of 23.992 MMT are 89 percent of total projected exports, down from the 5-year average of 92 percent of exports committed by this date. Jamaica, Mexico and Philippines accounted for the majority of the 112,500 metric tons of new crop sales.
  • The Baltic Panamax index firmed this week, moving 7 percent higher to close at 1,542. The Baltic P2A Atlantic/Gulf Panamax index to Asia ended the week 8.3 percent higher at 21,000 and has nearly doubled since the beginning of the year. The Gulf/PNW spread to Asia widened to $21/MT, up from $19/MT last week and $10/MT at the start of the year.
  • The dollar continued to rise this week, with the ICE dollar index ending at 88.490, the highest level since April 2006. The dollar also gained against other safe haven currencies, moving up more than 4 percent against the yen this week and 7.6 percent year-to-date.

File Name
PR 090227.pdf
PR 090227.xlsx
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