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August 29, 2008

(See attached file: PR080829pub.pdf) (See attached file: PR080829pub.xlsx)


  • Indications of improving weather prospects in the Southern Hemisphere, a rebound in the dollar and declining US sales drove wheat futures lower this week. For the week, the September deliverable position at the CBOT was down 86 cents/bu, the KCBT fell 81 cents/bu and the MGE was down 77 cents/bu. Corn finished 18 cents/bu lower while soybeans gained 11 cents/bu.
  • Sales dropped sharply from last week’s marketing year high to 367 TMT (old and new crop). Sales of old crop wheat to Colombia (75 TMT), Mexico (71 TMT), Iran (70 TMT) and Indonesia (60 TMT) were notable.
  • IGC released a bearish report raising its estimate of 2008/09 global wheat production 10 MMT to 672 MMT. Increased production prospects in the Black Sea, China and Australia were cited for the more optimistic outlook. Additionally, IGC increased forecasted feed use to 111 MMT, up four percent from last month and 26 percent above 2007/08.
  • Brazil’s Foreign Trade Committee announced it will return to its policy of taxing wheat imports from non-Mercosur origins at 10 percent.
  • The SRW/Corn spread narrowed significantly this week dropping from $2.80/bu last week to $2.11/bu market close Friday.
  • Freight rates eased this week, off $2/MT in the Gulf and $5/MT in the PNW. The Maritime Research Grain Freight Index held at 832.9 but is well off the June high of 870.

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