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April 13, 2012

(See attached file: PR 120413.pdf) (See attached file: PR 120413.xls)

  • Wheat futures closed lower this week despite three days of gains. Favorable weather and a weaker U.S. dollar could not overcome a bearish USDA WASDE report and global economic concerns, which pushed prices lower. News from farmers that this week’s cold snap caused little or no damage to crops added pressure to markets on Friday. All three futures contracts declined more than 10 cents each on Tuesday and Friday. MGEX saw the largest decline of the week, down 22 cents to $8.24/bu. KCBT lost 19 cents to close at $6.43/bu and CBOT closed down 14 cents at $6.24/bu. The CBOT contract is down 6 percent the last two weeks, which is the biggest two-week loss in three months. CBOT May corn contract lost 29 cents on the week to close at $6.29/bu and CBOT soybean closed at $14.37/bu, a 3 cent gain.
  • USDA released its monthly supply and demand updates in the April 10 WASDE. The largest change was a 6.83 MMT increase in world feed use, putting the estimate at a record 138 MMT but total world consumption only increased 2.83 MMT to 687 MMT. Estimated 2011/12 beginning stocks decreased 800,000 MT and projected world trade increased by the same amount. Projected ending stocks declined 3.31 MMT to 206.27 MMT but would be the fourth largest carryover supply on record and 25 percent greater than 5-year average. U.S. wheat supply numbers remained unchanged and a 950,000 MT increase in feed wheat use accounted for most of the change in total U.S. demand. Projected U.S. ending stocks decreased 870,000 to 31.6 MMT.
  • In a report released this week, French analyst Strategie Grains decreased its forecasts for the 2012/13 EU winter wheat crop due to frost damage and drought. Estimated 2012/13 soft wheat production is 2 percent lower than 2011/12 at 126.8 MMT and estimated durum production is down 6 percent to 7.8 MMT.
  • French farm office FranceAgriMer on Tuesday released its wheat planting projections for the 2012/13 harvest. The EU’s largest wheat producer expects soft wheat acreage to be 4.72 million hectares, a 5 percent year over year decrease. Estimated hard wheat acreage is up almost 1 percent at 417,448 hectares. The French farm office also adjusted 2011/12 soft wheat supply estimates. It lowered expected ending stocks to 2.1 MMT, 29 percent lower than 2010/11 and raised estimated exports outside of the EU to 9.0 MMT, down 30 percent from last year’s record 12.9 MMT.
  • The Baltic Panamax index closed higher this week at 1,110, up from 1,036 last week. Grain shipment activity picked up following a slow holiday week last week and thanks to post-harvest exports out of South America.
  • The ICE Dollar Index closed lower this week at 80.06, down from 80.29 last Friday.

File Name
PR 120413.pdf
PR 120413.xls
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