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April 15, 2016
  • Wheat futures markets ended the week mixed. Much needed rain is forecast for the U.S. Southern Plains this weekend pressuring KCBT wheat futures, while projections for a smaller planted spring wheat area lent support to MGEX wheat futures. Abundant global supplies continue to weigh on the market, but the U.S. dollar weakened against competitor currencies this week, notably Australia, which supported export demand. CBOT May wheat finished flat at $4.60/bu, KCBT slipped 2 cents to $4.58/bu and MGEX added 9 cents to $5.22/bu. CBOT May corn rose 16 cents to $3.78/bu and CBOT May soybeans grew 39 cents to $9.56/bu.
  • Western White wheat basis weakened due to increased farmer sales of club wheat. Soft white (SW) basis strengthened after a rally in the Australian dollar created increased interest in U.S. wheat from export markets.
  • In its weekly Export Sales Report, USDA reported net sales of 124,700 metric tons (MT) for delivery in marketing year 2015/16, which were up noticeably from the previous week, but 41% lower than the prior 4-week average. Sales were within trade expectations of 0 to 400,000 MT. Total known outstanding sales and accumulated exports of all wheat classes for marketing year 2015/16, through April 7, 2016, were 19.3 million metric tons (MMT), 17% lower than last year's year-to-date total of 23.3 MMT.
  • In its April WASDE, USDA increased its estimate for global 2015/16 global wheat production to 733 MMT, up 1% from 2014/15 based on higher production in the European Union (EU) and Argentina. U.S. ending stocks expected to reach 26.6 MMT, the largest since 1987/88. USDA will release its first 2016/17 crop projection numbers in May.
  • USDA rated 56% of the U.S. winter wheat crop as good to excellent as of April 11, down from 59% last week. USDA rated just 9% of the crop as poor or very poor, down from 19% last year. USDA reported spring wheat planting at 13% complete compared to the 5-year average of 10%.
  • Wheat production in Germany, the second largest wheat producer in the EU behind France, will fall to 26.1 MMT, down 2% from 2015/16 due to an expected reduction in yields, according to Reuters.
  • Strategie Grains estimates the EU will produce 145 MMT of wheat in 2016, compared to 151 MMT in 2015.
  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange predicted Argentine farmers will plant 11.1 million acres of wheat in 2016, up 25% from 2015. Argentine farmers plant winter wheat in April and May.
  • The Baltic Panamax Index climbed to 597, up 15% from last week’s close of 517.
  • The Dollar Index rose to 94.62, up slightly from 94.21 last Friday.
  • Current HRS price indications are for Northern Spring. Dark Northern Spring is available, but premiums vary. Soft red winter (SRW) indications are for a minimum falling number of 250. Higher minimum specifications will carry a premium.

File Name
PR 160415.pdf
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