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April 5, 2012


(See attached file: PR 120405.pdf) (See attached file: PR 120405.xls)

Highlights:
  • Wheat futures closed mixed this week as continued support from USDA’s prospective plantings report helped MGEX fend off bearish factors affecting CBOT and KCBT contracts. Exceptional weather and reports of excellent crop conditions throughout the U.S. pressured the HRW and SRW contracts this week. Weakness in outside financial markets and a stronger dollar also weighed on wheat futures. MGEX May contract gained 9 cents on the week to close at $8.46/bu but KCBT lost 36 cents and CBOT lost 23 cents to close at $6.62/bu and $6.38/bu, respectively. CBOT corn gained 14 cents to $6.58/bu and CBOT soybeans closed at $14.34/bu, up 32 cents on the week.
  • The spread between the CBOT May wheat and corn contracts swung 37 cents this week. Last week wheat held a 17 cent premium, compared to corn’s 20 cent premium on Friday. The spread between the KCBT May contract and CBOT corn narrowed from 54 cents last week to 4 cents this week.
  • In its first crop progress report of the season, USDA rated U.S. winter wheat as 58 percent good-to-excellent as of April 1, compared with 37 percent a year ago. USDA reported 8 percent of spring wheat as planted, compared to 1 percent this time last year and the five-year average of 2 percent.
  • International Grains Council (IGC) increased its 2011/12 wheat production forecast by 1.0 MMT from last month to 696 MMT, compared to 653 MMT in 2010/11. Estimated world trade increased this month by 2.0 MMT to 139 MMT, up 9 percent from last year. Consumption remained the same at 681 MMT and ending stocks decreased 1.0 MMT to 210 MMT. IGC published its first supply and demand projections for the 2012/13 marketing year, estimating production of 681 MMT, world trade at 136 MMT and 683 MMT of consumption.
  • Agricultural analyst Informa Economics issued its April U.S. crop report this week. Informa projects 2012/13 winter wheat production at 44.4 MMT, including 26.6 MMT of HRW, 11.62 MMT of SRW and 6.12 MMT of winter white wheat. If realized, total winter wheat production will be 3.76 MMT greater than last year.
  • The Baltic Panamax index closed lower this week at 1,036, down from 1,051 last week. Freight rates are unchanged from the last two weeks as world freight markets were very quiet ahead of Easter weekend.
  • The ICE Dollar Index closed higher this week at 80.29, down from 79.14 last Friday.

File Name
PR 120405.pdf
PR 120405.xls
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