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May 15, 2015
  • U.S. wheat futures closed higher this week after fund-driven short coverings spurred a sharp gain on Thursday. Other than a weaker U.S. dollar, most fundamental news was bearish. U.S. spring wheat plantings are well ahead of average and winter wheat growing conditions improved. USDA expects 2015/16 global supplies to be the second highest on record and U.S. supplies will increase 6% from last year. A lack of export demand for U.S. wheat continues to weigh on markets. CBOT July wheat gained 30 cents to $5.11/bu, KCBT added 33 cents to $5.42/bu and MGEX closed 20 cents higher at $5.61/bu.
  • Current HRS price indications are for Northern Spring only. Premiums for Dark Northern Spring will vary. SRW indications are for a minimum falling number of 250. Higher minimum specifications will carry a premium.
  • In its first supply and demand estimates for the 2015/16 marketing year, USDA projected world supplies will increase slightly from 2014/15 as increased beginning stocks (201 MMT) will more than offset reduced production (719 MMT). Global trade will fall an estimated 4% from last year to 157 MMT, 4% greater than the 5-year average. Global consumption will set a new record for the third consecutive year at 717 MMT. USDA expects U.S. supplies to increase 6% on higher beginning stocks (19.3 MMT) and production (56.8 MMT).
  • USDA reported 87% of the U.S. spring wheat crop was seeded as of May 10, well ahead of the 5-year average of 51%. USDA rated 44% of the U.S. winter wheat crop was in good to excellent condition on May 10, up 1% from the previous week and compared to 30% at this time last year.
  • According to USDA’s weekly Export Sales Report, total known outstanding sales and accumulated exports of all classes of wheat for the 2014/15 marketing year, through May 7, 2015 were 23.2 MMT, 27 percent lower than last year's year-to-date total of 31.6 MMT. Net sales of 115,400 metric tons for delivery in marketing year 2014/2015 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average and above trade expectations for net reductions between 150,000 and 50,000 metric tons. USDA forecasts 2014/15 U.S. wheat exports (including donations) to reach 23.4 MMT.
  • The Baltic Panamax Index closed at 579, down from 594 last week.
  • The US Dollar Index closed lower for the fifth consecutive week at 93.24, down from 94.86 last Friday. The index is down 6% since April 10.

File Name
PR 150515.pdf
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