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May 20, 2016
  • Pressured by a strengthening U.S. dollar, U.S. wheat futures closed the week lower due to technical selling. Strong export sales lent support. CBOT and KCBT July wheat fell 7 cents each to $4.68/bu and $4.49/bu, respectively. MGEX lost 8 cents to $5.28/bu. CBOT July corn added 4 cents to $3.94/bu and CBOT July soybeans grew 9 cents to $10.74/bu.
  • Basis received support from slow farmer selling and export sales this week. Basis levels for the Pacific Northwest will be firmer for the last quarter of 2016 due to planned maintenance closures on the Columbia River system.
  • In its weekly Export Sales Report, USDA reported net sales of 175,200 metric tons (MT) for delivery in marketing year 2015/16, which were down 41% from the previous week, and 37% lower than the prior 4-week average. Sales were within trade expectations of 0 to 250,000 MT. Total known outstanding sales and accumulated exports of all wheat classes for marketing year 2015/16, through May 12, 2016, were 20.6 million metric tons (MMT), 11% lower than last year's year-to-date total of 23.3 MMT.
  • As of May 15, 68% of U.S. winter wheat had headed according to USDA, which rated 62% of the U.S. winter wheat crop as good to excellent, unchanged from last week. USDA rated just 8% of the crop as poor or very poor, up one percentage point from the prior week and down from 19% last year. USDA reported spring wheat planting at 89% complete compared to the 5-year average of 64%, and 60% of spring wheat had emerged compared to the 5-year average of 36%.
  • Argentina Agricultural Ministry pegged 2016/17 Argentine winter wheat planted area at 5.3 million hectares (13.1 million acres), up 21% year-over-year. If realized, it would be the largest winter wheat planted area since 2008.
  • According to consultancy Strategie Grains, European Union wheat production will reach 147 MMT, 3% lower than the 2015 record crop of 151 MMT.
  • On May 16, FranceAgriMer rated 86% of French wheat in good or excellent condition, down from 87% the prior week and compared to 91% at the same time last year.
  • Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada estimated Canada will produce 22.8 MMT of wheat in 2016/17, up 3% from the prior year due to higher yields. However, total supply is expected to fall 9% due to a 51% year-over-year decrease in beginning stocks to 3.00 MMT. Canadian wheat exports are expected to decline by 10% in 2016/17 due to a smaller supply.
  • The Baltic Index rose to 634 up 9% from last week’s close of 579.
  • The Dollar Index increased to 95.27, up 1% from 94.70 last Friday.
  • Current hard red spring (HRS) price indications are for Northern Spring. Dark Northern Spring is available, but premiums vary. Soft red winter (SRW) indications are for a minimum falling number of 250. Higher minimum specifications will carry a premium.

File Name
PR 160520.pdf
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