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November 18, 2016
  • Wheat futures finished the week higher supported by dry conditions in the U.S. Plains and strong export demand ahead of next week’s U.S. holiday. Gains were limited by the U.S. dollar hitting a 14-year high this week making U.S. exports relatively more expensive for importers. CBOT December wheat added 3 cents this week to $4.08/bu, KCBT rose 5 cents to $4.14/bu and MGEX climbed 14 cents to $5.29/bu. CBOT December corn grew 2 cents to $3.45/bu and CBOT November soybeans fell 4 cents to $9.94/bu.
  • Nearby export basis remained largely unchanged with most elevation capacity booked for the year. Slow farmer selling and strong export demand continue to support basis. Hard red winter (HRW) from the Pacific Northwest (PNW) export basis firmed due to increased export demand from China. Beginning in January, lower rail freight pressures export basis. Soft white wheat export basis increases in January due to the planned Columbia-Snake River system closure beginning on Dec. 16.
  • USDA’s weekly Export Sales Report included net wheat sales of 598,400 metric tons (MT) for marketing year 2016/17. Sales were in line with trade expectations of 400,000 to 600,000 MT. Total known outstanding sales and accumulated exports of all classes of wheat for 2016/17, through Nov. 10, 2016, were 17.7 million metric tons (MMT), 28% higher than a total of 13.8 MMT last year on this date. USDA expects 2016/17 U.S. wheat exports to reach 26.5 MMT.
  • As of Nov. 7, U.S. winter wheat planting is 94% complete, up 3% from the prior week; 84% of the crop had emerged compared to 79% last week. USDA rated 59% of the winter wheat crop in good to excellent condition, up one percentage point from last week.
  • The Nov. 15 U.S. Drought Monitor shows drought conditions are worsening in the southeastern U.S. soft red winter (SRW) production region. Dry conditions are also building in western parts of the U.S. Plains ahead of winter dormancy.
  • According to Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) Rural, Australian wheat harvest started this week.
  • On Nov. 17, Bolsa de Cereales, the Argentine Grain Exchange, reported harvest was 12% complete, up from 9% last week. Initial yields continue to be lower than expected but are predicted to improve as harvest continues. Hail and late frosts were noted in the major wheat growing areas, but the extent of damage, if any, is still unknown.
  • Stratégie Grains forecast European Union soft wheat (non-durum) planted area at 24.3 million hectares (60 million acres), similar to the area planted last fall.
  • On Nov. 18, FranceAgriMer reported winter wheat planting is 95% complete in France, up 5% from the prior week, and 73% of the crop had emerged compared to 61% last week and 86% in 2015.
  • The Baltic Index rose to 1,231, 30% higher than last week’s close of 954 due to strength from the capsize market. This is the highest close in 2 years.
  • The Dollar Index rose to 101.23, up 2% from 98.76 last Friday, and the highest close in 14 years.
  • There will be no Price Report next week due to the Thanksgiving holiday. Price Report will resume on Dec. 2.
  • Current hard red spring (HRS) price indications are for Northern Spring. Dark Northern Spring is available, but premiums vary. Soft red winter (SRW) indications are for a minimum falling number of 250. Higher minimum specifications will carry a premium.

File Name
PR 161118.pdf
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