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August 1, 2014
  • U.S. wheat futures closed mixed this week. Expectations of large world supplies and strong export competition pressured futures early in the week. Stronger than expected weekly sales and quality concerns in the French crop helped push futures higher. Fears that financial sanctions imposed against Russia, including the Russian Agriculture Bank, could affect Black Sea grain exports added support to wheat markets. KCBT September wheat added 2 cents to close at $6.33/bu. CBOT and MGEX September contracts each closed 4 cents lower at $5.34/bu and $6.16/bu, respectively. CBOT September corn dropped 11 cents to $3.53/bu and CBOT August soybeans gained 3 cents to $12.15/bu.
  • Several analytical groups increased production forecasts this week, adding to concerns of ample global supply. International Grains Council raised its forecast for 2014/15 global wheat production from 699 MMT last month to 702 MMT and compared to 710 MMT in 2013/14. UkrAgroConsult raised its forecast for Ukraine's 2014/15 production from 20.5 MMT to 21.0 MMT. Exporter CBH Group said Australia's largest grain producing state is likely to beat official forecasts for 2014/15 wheat output by about 1.0 MMT, or 12 percent.
  • The Wheat Quality Council’s annual spring wheat tour surveyed crops in North Dakota and parts of South Dakota and Minnesota from July 21 to 24 and projected an average spring wheat yield of 48.6 bushels per acre, a record for the tour. If realized, it would be the highest HRS yield average in at least 22 years.
  • Weekly commercial sales far exceeded trade expectations this week, according to USDA. Net sales of 801,000 MT were up 81% from the previous week and 92% from the prior 4-week average and above trade expectations of 350,000 to 550,000 MT. Total known outstanding sales and accumulated exports of all classes of wheat for the 2014/15 marketing year, through July 24, 2014 were 9.73 MMT, 25 percent lower than last year's year-to-date total of 12.9 MMT. USDA forecasts 2013/14 U.S. wheat exports (including donations) to reach 24.5 MMT.
  • The Baltic Panamax Index closed higher this week, up from 606 last Friday to 611.
  • The US Dollar Index closed higher this week, up from 81.05 last Friday to 81.40.

File Name
PR 140801.pdf
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