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August 19, 2016
  • Supported by a weaker U.S. dollar, strong export sales and short-covering, wheat futures closed higher for the third consecutive week. Abundant global supplies continue to limit gains, but concerns about quality in the European Union provided support. CBOT September wheat added 4 cents to $4.27/bu, KCBT increased 2 cents to $4.19/bu and MGEX grew 14 cents to $5.28/bu. CBOT September corn gained 12 cents to $3.34/bu and CBOT September soybeans rose 28 cents to $10.27/bu.
  • Rail rates continue to support Gulf export basis. Corn and soybean export demand for rail freight and elevation capacity continues to support export basis at all ports. Rail rates will increase in October, accounting for part of the basis increase. Lack of farmer selling and strong export demand for wheat is also supporting basis. Premiums for low protein soft white (SW) narrowed significantly this past month due to greater availability of more traditional low protein SW in the 2016/17 crop.
  • USDA’s weekly Export Sales Report included net wheat sales of 489,500 metric tons (MT) for marketing year 2016/17. Sales were within trade expectations of 400,000 to 600,000 MT. Total known outstanding sales and accumulated exports of all classes of wheat for 2016/17, through Aug. 11, 2016, were 11.2 million metric tons (MMT), 21% higher than a total of 9.26 MMT last year on this date. USDA expects 2016/17 U.S. wheat exports to reach 25.9 MMT.
  • As of Aug. 15, U.S. winter wheat harvest is 97% complete, ahead of the 5-year average pace of 95% complete on the same date. USDA rated 66% of the spring wheat crop in good to excellent condition, down two percentage points from last week. U.S. spring wheat harvest is 48% complete, compared to the 5-year average of 30%.
  • FranceAgriMer estimated French harvest at 97% complete compared to 75% the week prior.
  • According to the German Farmers’ Association (DBV), German wheat production will decline to 22.9 MMT, down 13% from 2015/16 due to extended rainfall during harvest.
  • Ukraine’s Agriculture Ministry pegged 2016/17 Ukrainian wheat production at 25.5 MMT, compared to the 26.5 MMT 2015/16 harvest.
  • Russia’s Agriculture Ministry proposed reducing the floating wheat export tariff to zero until July 1, 2017 according to Reuters.
  • Argentina’s Bolsa de Cereales de Buenos Aires (Buenos Aires Grain Exchange) rated 91 percent of Argentine wheat in good to excellent condition, much improved over 2015/16 when excessive rain caused flooding and prevented wheat emergence in some areas.
  • The Baltic Index rose to 682, 4% higher than last week’s close of 653.
  • The Dollar Index fell to 94.53, down 1% from 95.72 last Friday.
  • Current hard red spring (HRS) price indications are for Northern Spring. Dark Northern Spring is available, but premiums vary. Soft red winter (SRW) indications are for a minimum falling number of 250. Higher minimum specifications will carry a premium.

File Name
PR 160819.pdf
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