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May 5, 2017
  • Wheat futures rose this week supported by a strong export demand and concerns about possible damage to the U.S. hard red winter (HRW) crop. A softer U.S. dollar lent additional support. CBOT wheat futures rose 9 cents to $4.27/bu, KCBT climbed 13 cents to $4.38/bu and MGEX closed 1 cent higher at $5.42/bu. CBOT May corn added 4 cents to $3.62/bu and CBOT May soybeans increased 18 cents to $9.63/bu.
  • Flooding on the Mississippi River is delaying barge traffic and supporting Gulf export basis for nearby contracts. Uncertainty about damage to the HRW crop pushed export basis higher for the PNW and Gulf.
  • USDA’s weekly Export Sales Report included net wheat sales of 258,400 metric tons (MT) for marketing year 2016/17. Sales were well above trade expectations of 0 to 150,000 MT. Total known outstanding sales and accumulated exports of all classes of wheat for 2016/17, through April 27, 2017, were 28.0 million metric tons (MMT), 39% higher than a total of 20.1 MMT last year on this date, and 9% above the 5-year average. Year-to-date export sales exceed the current USDA 2016/17 U.S. wheat export projection of 27.9 MMT.
  • On May 1, USDA rated 54% of the winter wheat crop in good to excellent condition unchanged from last week; 13% of winter wheat is in poor or very poor condition. USDA reported 42% of winter wheat had headed, compared to the 5-year average of 34%. USDA data put spring wheat planting at 31% complete, up from 22% last week but behind the 5-year average pace of 46%. Spring wheat emergence is 9% complete, compared to the 5-year average of 17%.
  • The May 4 U.S. Drought Monitor reported widespread rain and wet snow fell across the U.S. Plains, dumping as much as 22 inches (56 cm) of snow on maturing wheat. The precipitation eliminated drought conditions over nearly all the HRW-growing area, but may have damaged the crop, which can be better assessed in 10 to 14 days. Excessive rain fell across Illinois, Indiana, Missouri and Ohio causing flooding. In contrast, the Northern Plains were dry this week, allowing spring wheat planting to progress.
  • Scouts on the annual U.S. Wheat Quality Council HRW Tour pegged production in the top HRW state of Kansas at 282 million bushels (7.67 MMT) compared to 382 million bushels (10.4 MMT) in 2016.
  • According to Reuters, Ukrainian spring wheat planting is 94% complete, up 2 percentage points from the prior week at 412,000 acres (167,000 hectares).
  • FranceAgriMer rated 74% of French common wheat in good or excellent condition, down from 78% the prior week and 87% last year.
  • The StatsCan first quarter wheat stocks report showed Canadian all wheat stocks increased 15% year over year to 16.6 MMT. Durum stocks increased 51% to 4.10 MMT. Both all wheat and durum stocks were significantly lower than trade expectations.
  • The Baltic Index fell to 1004, down 11% from 1134 last week.
  • The Dollar Index decreased to 98.68, down slightly from last Friday’s close of 98.98.
  • Current hard red spring (HRS) price indications are for Northern Spring. Dark Northern Spring is available, but premiums vary. SRW indications are for a minimum falling number of 250. Higher minimum specifications will carry a premium.

File Name
PR 170505.pdf
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