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October 16, 2015
  • CBOT and KCBT wheat futures closed 3% lower and MGEX 4% lower today compared to last Friday after rallying midweek on technical buying and weather concerns in key wheat production areas. However, today’s forecasts for precipitation in the U.S. southern plains and the Black Sea region, and a rally in the U.S. dollar drove markets lower, on top of record global supplies and weak U.S. wheat export demand for U.S. wheat, continuing to weigh on the markets. CBOT, KCBT and MGEX December wheat each fell 17 cents from last Friday to close at $4.92/bu, $4.83/bu and $5.12/bu, respectively. CBOT December corn dropped 6 cents to $3.77/bu and CBOT November soybeans increased 12 cents week over week to end at $8.98/bu.
  • Current HRS price indications are for Northern Spring. Dark Northern Spring is available, but premiums vary. SRW indications are for a minimum falling number of 250. Higher minimum specifications will carry a premium.
  • Farmer selling continues to be slow, with most sales moving old crop. To receive the wheat they need, buyers are encouraged to continue using their 2014 specifications for vomitoxin and falling number as old crop supplies remain available. Basis support from soy and corn sales continues as these crops compete for available barge, rail and elevation capacities.
  • In its Oct. 16 crop progress update, USDA reported winter wheat planting is 64% complete, up from 49% last week and slightly behind the 5-year average of 66%, with winter wheat emergence at 33% compared to 41% this time last year.
  • USDA’s weekly Export Sales Report showed net sales of 460,400 MT for delivery in marketing year 2015/16, were up 60% from the previous week and up 80% from the prior 4-week average and above trade expectations of 250,000 to 450,000 MT. However, the upside sales did not overcome other bearish factors this week. Total known exports and outstanding sales for delivery in 2015/16 are 11.8 MMT, 18% lower than last year's year-to-date total of 14.4 MMT.
  • U.S. wheat producers enrolled in subsidy programs reported prevented plantings for Oct. 14 at 697,000 acres, up 1,000 acres from the September report. U.S. planted acreage for wheat, including failed acres totaled 52.5 million acres, a 1% decrease from this time last year.
  • The Baltic Panamax Index closed at 754 on Friday the lowest point since June 22, down 7% from 809 last week.
  • The US Dollar Index closed at 94.60, down slightly from 94.88 last Friday.

File Name
PR 151016.pdf
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