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February 13, 2009

(See attached file: PR 090213.pdf) (See attached file: PR 090213.xlsx)

Highlights:
  • Wheat futures were down this week amid spillover pressure from outside markets and rainfall in the Great Plains. For the week, nearby CBOT futures were off 22 cents/bu, KCBT was 12 cents lower while the MGE closed down 19 cents at $6.36/bu. Corn futures were 14 cents/bu lower at $3.63/bu while soybeans closed down 46 cents/bu at $9.55/bu.
  • USDA, as part of its 10-year baseline report, projected U.S. wheat output to decline 12 percent for 2009/10 to 60.2 MMT amid less planted acres and slightly lower yields. USDA projects planted acres to decline 4 percent to 24.5 million hectares while yields are projected 4.2 percent lower at 43 bushels/acre. The full report can be found here.
  • Strategie Grains lowered its projection for EU’s 2009/10 soft (non-durum) wheat crop to 132.2 MMT, down 6 percent from the current marketing year. Durum production for 2009/10 is projected 11 percent lower at 8.6 MMT.
  • Export sales of 411,700 metric tons were in line with trade expectations this week, and up more than 90 percent from the previous 4-week average. Soft wheat sales of 226,700 metric tons were notable with significant purchases from Egypt (115,000 SRW), Indonesia (61,000 SW) and Yemen (52,500 SW). Commitments to date of 23.094 MMT are 85 percent of total projected exports, down from the 5-year average of 89 percent of exports committed by this date.
  • CFTC reported that large speculators increased their net short position in CBOT wheat futures and options by nearly 5,300 contracts, up 10 percent from last week and 25 percent since the beginning of the year. Total CBOT wheat open interest was reported 8 percent higher this week and up 14 percent since January. Despite the year-to-date increase in open interest, current levels are still 35 percent below this time last year.
  • Slow country movement and depressed economic activity pushed barge freight lower this week. April St. Louis barge freight traded 240 over tariff, down from 290 last week, while Illinois River rates traded 310 over compared with 360 a week earlier.
  • The Baltic Panamax Index firmed this week moving 12 percent higher to close at 1399 as China’s demand for iron ore increased from recent low levels. The Baltic P2A Atlantic/Gulf Panamax index to Asia ended the week 12 percent higher at 18,029, while the Pacific to Asia index declined 1 percent to 8,293. The Gulf/PNW spread to Asia widened to $19/MT this week, up from $17/MT last week and $10/MT at the start of the year.


File Name
PR 090213.pdf
PR 090213.xlsx
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