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October 27, 2017
  • Despite pressure from the U.S. dollar, which strengthened to a three-month high, wheat futures closed higher. Concerns about drought in Australia and increasing concerns about quality in Argentina lent support. CBOT December wheat added 1 cent to $4.27/bu, KCBT grew 2 cents to $4.25/bu and MGEX climbed 6 cents to $6.17/bu. CBOT December corn increased 4 cents to $3.49/bu and CBOT January soybeans fell 3 cents to $9.86/bu.
  • Export basis November and December shipment are supported by increased demand for freight and export capacity during corn and soybean harvest across the United States. Farmer selling has ground to a halt as farmers work to finish corn and soybean harvest, further supporting export basis.
  • USDA’s weekly Export Sales Report included net wheat sales of 360,600 metric tons (MT) for marketing year 2017/18. Sales were within trade expectations of 300,000 to 500,000 MT. Total known outstanding sales and accumulated exports of all classes of wheat for 2017/18, through October 19, 2017, were 15.2 million metric tons (MMT), 6% behind last year's year-to-date total and 4% behind the 5-year average pace. USDA expects 2017/18 U.S. wheat exports to reach 26.5 MMT.
  • On October 22, USDA reported winter wheat planting was 75% complete, behind the 5-year average pace of 80%. Fifty-two percent of winter wheat has emerged, behind the 5-year average pace of 57%.
  • The October 24 U.S. Drought Monitor showed beneficial rains fell across the U.S. Southern and Central Plains and Pacific Northwest replenishing depleted topsoil moisture, but slowing corn and soybean harvest. In the U.S. Northern Plains, 72% of Montana and 49% of South Dakota remain in moderate to extreme drought.
  • The Saskatchewan weekly crop report noted harvest has finished across the province. Crop yields varied depending on seeding date and moisture levels, but overall yields were similar to the 10-year average. In Alberta, spring wheat harvest is 89% complete, ahead of last year’s pace; however, snow fell across the region slowing harvest progress and hurting quality.
  • The Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported Russian wheat harvest is 99% complete. Russian farmers harvested 87.8 MMT of wheat to date with an average yield of 41.5 bu/acre (2.79 MT/ha).
  • Reuters reported winter wheat sowing is 94% complete in Ukraine and is likely to total 15.1 million acres (6.1 million hectares), similar to last year.
  • On October 26, Bolsa de Cereales, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, reported Argentine wheat harvest is 3% complete. Fifty-nine percent of the wheat is in good to excellent condition, 22% is in fair condition and 18% is poor or very poor. Bolsa estimates Argentine 2017/18 wheat planted area totaled 13.2 million acres (5.35 million hectares).
  • The Baltic Index fell to 1555, down from the prior week’s close of 1578.
  • The Dollar Index increased to 94.84 from last Friday’s close of 93.70.

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