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October 6, 2017
  • Much needed moisture fell across the United States this week pressuring wheat futures lower. Technical buying and short-covering limited losses. Strong U.S. export sales also lent support. CBOT December wheat slipped 5 cents to $4.43/bu, KCBT fell 6 cents to $4.37/bu and MGEX finished the week flat at $6.24/bu. CBOT December corn lost 5 cents to $3.50/bu and CBOT January soybeans added 4 cents to $9.83/bu.
  • Export basis for October, November and December shipment are supported by increased demand for freight and export capacity during corn and soybean harvest across the United States. Low water conditions are pushing barge freight higher for Gulf exporters, also supporting nearby export basis.
  • USDA’s weekly Export Sales Report included net wheat sales of 492,300 metric tons (MT) for marketing year 2017/18. Sales were within trade expectations of 300,000 to 500,000 MT. Total known outstanding sales and accumulated exports of all classes of wheat for 2017/18, through Sept. 28, 2017, were 14.0 million metric tons (MMT), 3 percent behind both last year's year-to-date total and the 5-year average pace. USDA expects 2017/18 U.S. wheat exports to reach 26.5 MMT.
  • On Oct. 2, USDA reported winter wheat planting was 36% complete, behind the 5-year average pace of 43%. Twelve percent of winter wheat has emerged, behind the 5-year average pace of 16%. In drought stricken Montana, winter wheat emergence is just 2% compared to the 5-year average of 20% due in part to a slower planting pace and in part to the lack of subsoil moisture necessary for germination.
  • The October 5 U.S. Drought Monitor showed beneficial rains fell across the U.S. Plains, replenishing depleted topsoil moisture. However, 66% of Montana remains in severe to exceptional drought, causing farmers to delay planting as they wait for additional rainfall. Preliminary data also suggests southeastern Oklahoma experienced its driest September on record. Most of the Pacific Northwest is abnormally dry or in a moderate drought, which is allowing winter wheat planting to progress rapidly. Additional rainfall will be needed for wheat emergence and stand establishment.
  • The Saskatchewan weekly crop report noted warm, dry weather allowed farmers back into the fields to finish harvest after rain last week that replenished topsoil moisture but slowed harvest. Durum harvest is 97% complete up from 91% last week, and spring wheat harvest is 92% complete, up from 77% one week ago. In Alberta, spring wheat harvest is 74% complete, ahead of last year’s pace; however, snow fell across the region halting harvest progress. With durum harvest in the province nearly complete, Alberta Agriculture and Forestry estimated the average durum yield at 34.9 bu/acre (2.35 MT/ha) compared to 47.1 bu/acre (3.17 MT/ha) recorded in 2016.
  • The Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported Russian wheat harvest is 95% complete, up from 91% complete last week. Russian farmers harvested 85.4 MMT of wheat to date with an average yield of 48.6 bu/acre (3.27 MT/ha).
  • Reuters reported winter wheat sowing is 64% complete in Ukraine and is likely to total 15.1 million acres (6.1 million hectares), similar to last year.
  • On October 5, Bolsa de Cereales, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, 51% of wheat acres are being affected by excess moisture which is increasing disease pressure and preventing farmers from applying fungicides. Bolsa estimates Argentine 2017/18 wheat planted area totaled 13.2 million acres (5.35 million hectares).
  • The Baltic Index climbed to 1382, up from the prior week’s close of 1356.
  • The Dollar Index increased to 93.98 from last Friday’s close of 93.08.

File Name
PR 1701006.pdf
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