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August 18, 2017
  • Technical selling and large Black Sea wheat supplies pressured wheat futures lower this week. Strong export demand lent limited support. CBOT September wheat fell 23 cents to $4.16/bu, KCBT lost 27 cents to $4.14/bu and MGEX shed 5 cents to $6.69/bu. CBOT September corn dropped 9 cents to $3.61/bu and CBOT September soybeans declined 1 cent to $9.38/bu.
  • Consecutive weeks of declining wheat futures increased buyer interest and shut off farmer sales, supporting export basis across the United States this week. Export basis for October, November and December shipment are sharply higher than nearby contracts due to increased demand for freight during corn and soybean harvest.
  • USDA’s weekly Export Sales Report included net wheat sales of 633,600 metric tons (MT) for marketing year 2017/18. Sales were above trade expectations of 300,000 to 600,000 MT. Total known outstanding sales and accumulated exports of all classes of wheat in 2017/18, through August 10, 2017, were 11.2 million metric tons (MMT), in line with last year’s total on this date, but slightly behind the 5-year average. USDA expects 2017/18 U.S. wheat exports to reach 26.5 MMT.
  • On August 14, USDA reported winter wheat harvest is 97% complete, slightly ahead of the 5-year average pace of 96%. USDA rated 33% of the spring wheat crop in good to excellent condition compared to 32% last week, while 42% of spring wheat is in poor or very poor condition. USDA reported spring wheat harvest is 40% complete, ahead of the 5-year average of 35%.
  • The August 17 U.S. Drought Monitor reported rain across most of the United States, replenishing soil moisture reserves in the U.S. Southern Plains, which will begin planting winter wheat in September. Rain across the U.S. Northern Plains brought a little relief to later maturing wheat, but continued to delay harvest in the most drought-stricken areas where wheat is fully mature. Hot, dry weather across the Pacific Northwest (PNW) benefited winter wheat harvest, but expanded abnormally dry conditions to most of the wheat-producing region. Additional rain is forecast next week for the U.S. Northern Plains, but hot, dry weather this weekend should allow farmers to get into their fields and advance wheat harvest.
  • The Saskatchewan weekly crop report noted rain caused some harvest delays. Nonetheless, winter wheat harvest is 50% complete, up from last week’s 31% complete. Durum harvest is 3% complete, and spring wheat harvest just began. In Alberta, 5% of spring wheat is rated in good to excellent condition down slightly from the prior week. Spring wheat harvest is 8% complete.
  • The Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture reported Ukrainian farmers harvested 26.5 MMT of wheat in 2017/18, down slightly from 2016/17.
  • The Russian Agricultural Ministry stated Russian wheat harvest is 49% complete, up from 39% the prior week. Russian farmers have harvested 55.7 MMT thus far with an average yield of 63.5 bu/acre (4.27 MT/hectare).
  • According to Reuters, rain continues to delay wheat harvest in Germany and Britain, the second and third largest wheat producing countries in the European Union, respectively.
  • On August 17, Bolsa de Cereales, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, reported Argentine wheat planting is nearly complete. Wet field conditions southeast of Buenos Aires prevented planting of about 123,000 acres (50,000 hectares). Consequently, Bolsa reduced its estimate for Argentine wheat planted area to 13.2 million acres (5.35 million hectares).
  • The Baltic Index rose to 1247, up 14% from the prior week’s close of 1092.
  • The Dollar Index increased to 93.58 from last Friday’s close of 93.40.

File Name
PR 170818.pdf
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