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February 17, 2017
  • Technical selling and a stronger U.S. dollar pressured wheat futures lower this week. Strong export demand lent limited support. CBOT March wheat fell 8 cents to $4.41/bu, KCBT dipped 4 cents to $4.56/bu and MGEX decreased 26 cents to $5.46/bu. CBOT March corn lost 6 cents to $3.68/bu and CBOT March soybeans declined 26 cents to $10.32/bu.
  • Exporters continue to work through the backlog of vessels driving a sharp inverse in export basis across the United States. Logistical challenges in the PNW continue with floods shutting down sections on one of the main rail lines in Washington yesterday slowing rail deliveries, and more rain is expected over the weekend. Due to the limited nearby export capacity in the PNW, traders report increased export demand at the Gulf for nearby months supporting export basis. The Columbia-Snake river system and the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence Seaway System will both reopen in March.
  • Rail disruptions across the U.S. Northern Plains continue to occur as prior weeks’ heavy snow is now melting and causing flooding. For more information about rail service disruptions, click here*
  • USDA’s weekly Export Sales Report included net wheat sales of 569,100 metric tons (MT) for marketing year 2016/17. Sales were above trade expectations of 300,000 to 500,000 MT. Total known outstanding sales and accumulated exports of all classes of wheat for 2016/17, through Feb. 9, 2017, were 24.0 million metric tons (MMT), 39% higher than a total of 17.0 MMT last year on this date, and 10% above the 5-year average. USDA expects 2016/17 U.S. wheat exports to reach 27.9 MMT.
  • The Feb. 16 U.S. Drought Monitor reported heavy precipitation fell on the West Coast and Northern Plains again last week. Most of the Southern Plains continued to experience dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The 7-day forecast expects heavy precipitation across the PNW, predicting as much as 11 inches (28 cm) of precipitation across northwest Washington. Most areas of the United States are expected to receive precipitation in the next 7 days.
  • On Feb. 13, FranceAgriMer rated 92% of winter wheat in good to excellent condition down 2 percentage points from the November report before winter wheat went into dormancy. The agency rated 85% of French durum in good to excellent condition, compared to 90% on the same date last year.
  • ABARES reported 2016/17 Australian wheat production totaled 35.1 MMT, up 45% from 2015/16. Average yield increased to 2.72 MT/ha (40.5 bu/acre), up from 1.89 MT/ha (28.1 bu/acre) in 2015/16.
  • After multiple weeks of above average temperatures, U.S. winter wheat development in top hard red winter (HRW) producing states of Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas could break dormancy two weeks early leaving it vulnerable to late frosts.
  • The Baltic Index rose to 710, up from 702 last week.
  • The Dollar Index increased slightly week over week to 100.93.
  • Current hard red spring (HRS) price indications are for Northern Spring. Dark Northern Spring is available, but premiums vary. SRW indications are for a minimum falling number of 250. Higher minimum specifications will carry a premium.

File Name
PR 170217.pdf
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