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March 12, 2010

(See attached file: PR 100312.pdf)(See attached file: PR 100312.xls)

  • Futures prices traded lower again this week, with prices reaching a 5-month low following the release of the USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). The report increased both its global wheat production forecast and U.S. ending stocks projection. Overall, CBOT wheat futures lost 10 cents on the week, closing at $4.72/bu. The KCBT March contract was down 5 cents, to $4.87/bu, and MGEX was down 1 cent, to $5.02/bu. Soybean prices continued falling with the advancing South American harvest, dropping 8 cents on the week to close at $9.26/bu. Corn was also down, losing 10 cents and closing at $3.54/bu.
  • USDA increased their 2009/10 U.S. ending stocks forecast in their March WASDE report. The forecast, at 27.2 MMT, is 2 percent greater than last month following a reduced domestic food use projection. USDA also increased their 2009/10 global wheat production forecast, by 0.6 MMT to 678 MMT, due to greater estimated production in Argentina and larger beginning stocks in Russia.
  • The latest grain and oilseed outlook from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada projected 2010/11 Canadian wheat production at 24.0 MMT, down 0.7 MMT (3 percent) from their previous estimate and 2.5 MMT (9 percent) from 2009/10 production. Ag Canada projects the largest decline to come in durum production, from 5.4 MMT to 3.8 MMT, due to large carry-in stocks and sharply lower prices.
  • Warmer weather helped the Kansas winter wheat crop make significant progress this past week. Kansas Agricultural Statistics reported that 20 percent of the winter wheat crop is breaking dormancy, compared to 4 percent last week. Sixty percent of the crop is rated in good or excellent condition, up from 53 percent last week.
  • The Baltic Panamax Index climbed higher again this week, reaching its highest point since late November 2009, at 4,177. Increased iron ore purchases by China and grain exports from South America have been driving the index higher in recent weeks. Maritime Research’s Grain Freight Index was also up, to 561.7, which is its highest point since early December 2009 (564.2).

File Name
PR 100312.pdf
PR 100312.xls
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