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May 26, 2017
  • Cool, wet weather across the U.S. Plains supported wheat futures this week. Strong export demand also lent support. CBOT July wheat added 3 cents to $4.38/bu, KCBT finished flat at $4.37/bu, and MGEX increased 13 cents to $5.69/bu. CBOT July corn gained 2 cents to $3.74/bu and CBOT July soybeans lost 26 cents to $9.26/bu.
  • Continued wet weather across the U.S. Plains supported widening Gulf export protein premiums for hard red winter (HRW). Slow farmer selling and continued export demand also supported export basis across the United States.
  • USDA’s weekly Export Sales Report included net wheat sales of 201,900 metric tons (MT) for marketing year 2016/17. Sales were above trade expectations of 0 to 200,000 MT. Total known outstanding sales and accumulated exports of all classes of wheat for 2016/17, through May 18, 2017, were 28.4 million metric tons (MMT), 38% higher than a total of 20.6 MMT last year on this date, and 9% above the 5-year average. Year-to-date export sales exceed the current USDA 2016/17 U.S. wheat export projection of 28.2 MMT.
  • On May 22, USDA rated 52% of the winter wheat crop in good to excellent condition slightly higher than 51% from last week; 15% of winter wheat is in poor or very poor condition. USDA reported 72% of winter wheat had headed, compared to the 5-year average of 67%. Spring wheat planting is 90% complete, up from 78% last week and ahead of the 5-year average pace of 84% according to USDA data. Spring wheat emergence is 62% complete, compared to the 5-year average of 59%.
  • The USDA Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin reported excessive rains across the U.S. Central and Southern Plains on maturing wheat, increasing concerns about protein content in HRW. The U.S. Northern Plains experienced cooler than normal temperatures, but remained relatively dry allowing for good planting progress and emergence.
  • According to Reuters, Ukrainian average wheat yield will decrease to 55.3 bu/acre (3.72 metric tons per hectare), down 12% year over year if realized. Last fall, Ukrainian farmers planted 15.1 million acres (6.12 million hectares).
  • Spring planting is underway in Canada. According to the Saskatchewan weekly crop report, spring planting is 60% complete in the Canadian province, up from 35% complete last week, and slightly behind the 5-year average pace of 60%. Spring wheat planting in Alberta is 63% complete, up from 31% complete last week. Roughly 233,000 acres (94,000 hectares) of overwintered crops still need to be harvested in the province according to the Alberta weekly crop report.
  • The International Grains Council (IGC) left its forecast for 2017/18 world wheat production marginally unchanged at 736 MMT from its previous forecast. Minor reductions for the European Union (EU) and the United States were offset by an expected increase in India. If realized, it would be the first year over year drop in production in 5 years, and 2% below 2016/17.
  • The Argentine Agriculture Ministry expects 2017/18 planted wheat area to reach 14.8 million acres (6 million hectares) in Argentina. If realized, that would be up 39% year over year.
  • The Baltic Index fell to 918, down 4% from 956 last week.
  • The Dollar Index increased to 97.44, up slightly from last Friday’s close of 97.14.
  • Current hard red spring (HRS) price indications are for Northern Spring. Dark Northern Spring is available, but premiums vary. SRW indications are for a minimum falling number of 250. Higher minimum specifications will carry a premium.

File Name
PR 170526.pdf
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