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February 3, 2017
  • Supported by strong export demand and a weaker U.S. dollar, wheat futures closed the week higher. Forecasted moisture across U.S. winter wheat areas limited gains. CBOT and MGEX March wheat each rose 10 cents to $4.30/bu and $5.61/bu, respectively. KCBT added 6 cents to $4.40/bu. CBOT March corn climbed 3 cents to $3.65/bu and CBOT March soybeans fell 22 cents this week to $10.27/bu.
  • Export capacity is completely full in February and March for both the Gulf and Pacific Northwest (PNW), driving a sharp inverse in export basis across the United States. Exporters continue to work through the backlog of vessels. On average, it takes 15 days to move wheat from the U.S. Northern Plains to a vessel in the Gulf. Trade reports it is taking closer to 30 days currently due to snow and subzero temperatures affecting rail, and fog affecting barge traffic. The PNW is experiencing similar delays due to ice, snow and subzero temperatures. The Columbia-Snake river system closure for planned maintenance will run through March. The Great Lakes-St. Lawrence Seaway System will reopen at the end of March.
  • USDA’s weekly Export Sales Report included net wheat sales of 451,200 metric tons (MT) for marketing year 2016/17. Sales were above trade expectations of 250,000 to 450,000 MT. Total known outstanding sales and accumulated exports of all classes of wheat for 2016/17, through Jan. 26, 2017, were 22.9 million metric tons (MMT), 36% higher than a total of 16.8 MMT last year on this date, and 9% above the 5-year average. USDA expects 2016/17 U.S. wheat exports to reach 26.5 MMT.
  • The Feb. 2 U.S. Drought Monitor reported that minimal precipitation fell across most of the United States, and temperatures were normal or slightly above-normal across wheat-producing regions. The 5-day forecast expects precipitation to fall across most of the United States, and predicts temperatures will be above average in winter wheat producing areas.
  • StatsCan pegged Canadian 2017/18 planted wheat area at 9.33 million hectares, down 1% from 2016/17, if realized. With an expected return to trendline yields, StatsCan forecast 2017/18 Canadian wheat production (including durum) at 29.1 MMT. That would be down 8% from 2016/17, if realized.
  • The Baltic Index fell to 770, down 8% from 840 last week.
  • The Dollar Index declined 1% week over week to 99.85.
  • Current hard red spring (HRS) price indications are for Northern Spring. Dark Northern Spring is available, but premiums vary. SRW indications are for a minimum falling number of 250. Higher minimum specifications will carry a premium.

File Name
PR 170203.pdf
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