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December 5, 2008

(See attached file: PR081205.pdf) (See attached file: PR081205.xlsx)

  • In the two weeks since the last USW Price Report, U.S. futures prices have seen a sharp decline amid spillover pressure from outside markets and increased competition for exports. Global equities and commodities continue to move lower as fear over the size and scope of the global recession grows. Crude oil prices ended the week near a four-year low at $41/barrel adding pressure to an already weak grain market. With all offers now basis March delivery, nearby futures prices at the CBOT are down $0.41/bu, the KCBT was off $0.44/bu while MGE futures shed $0.26/bu from November 21. Soybeans ended the week $0.56 /bu lower and corn closed down $0.45 /bu at $2.94/bu.
  • Statistics Canada increased its estimate for Canada‚Äôs 2008/09 wheat crop to 28.6 MMT from a previous estimate for 27.2 MMT on record yields. Spring wheat accounted for 900,000 MT of the increase and durum the remaining 450,000 MT.
  • U.S. export sales were reported at a marketing year low 207,600 MT, down 53 percent from the previous week and well below trade estimates for 350,000 to 550,000 MT. SW sales accounted for 126,000 MT, with major sales to Yemen (50,000) and unknown destinations (60,000). Year-to-date sales stand at 20.6 MMT or 76 percent of the USDA sales forecast.
  • Freight indices moved sharply lower this week with the Baltic Panamax Index closing at 504, down 19 percent from last week, and an astounding 95 percent from the May high of 11,018.

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