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November 20, 2015
  • After four days of declines, a strong U.S. Export Sales Report lifted wheat futures with a small rally on Thursday. However, improved soil moisture in the United States and Black Sea, a stronger U.S. dollar and abundant global wheat supply limited gains with wheat futures closing mixed on the week. CBOT December wheat futures fell 9 cents to $4.88/bu, KCBT dropped 8 cents to $4.57/bu and MGEX added 3 cents to close at $5.09/bu. CBOT December corn rose 5 cents to $3.63/bu and CBOT December soybeans gained 2 cents to $8.57/bu.
  • Current hard red spring (HRS) price indications are for Northern Spring. Dark Northern Spring is available, but premiums vary. Soft red winter (SRW) indications are for a minimum falling number of 250. Higher minimum specifications will carry a premium.
  • Basis firmed slightly on limited farmer selling ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday.
  • In its weekly Export Sales Report, USDA reported net sales of 721,900 metric tons (MT) for delivery in marketing year 2015/16, which were well above trade expectations of 200,000 to 400,000 MT. Total known outstanding sales and accumulated exports of all classes of wheat for marketing year 2015/16, through Nov. 12, 2015 were 13.8 million metric tons (MMT), 15% lower than last year's year-to-date total of 16.1 MMT.
  • Reuters reports that wildfires in Western Australia may destroy 4% of the grain output in that state, which is Australia’s largest crop producing state.
  • Strategie France, a French consultancy, increased its estimate for EU 2015/16 soft wheat exports to 26.8 MMT up 300,000 MT from its October estimate.
  • According to USDA’s Nov. 16 weekly crop progress report, winter wheat planting in the United States is 94% complete and behind the 5-year average of 98% complete on the same date. Emergence is similar to 2014 at 87%. USDA estimates crop conditions improved 1 percentage point from last week with 52% of the crop in good or excellent condition, compared to 62% last year, while 38% is fair and 10% is in poor or very poor condition, compared to just 6% in 2014.
  • On Nov. 16, Ukrainian agriculture consultancy UkrAgroConsult dropped their estimate for 2016/17 winter wheat production 8% to 17.5 MMT, compared to their October estimate of 19 MMT. Ukrainian farmers left 11% of normal wheat production areas unsown because of the drought that has impacted the region. UkraAgroConsult estimates 30% of winter grains are in poor or very poor condition with only 62% emergence.
  • The International Grains Council anticipates 2016/17 world harvested area for wheat will decline about 1% to 548 million acres due to dryness in the Black Sea region.
  • The Baltic Panamax Index hit a record low on Friday of 504, down 13% from 579 last week.
  • The Dollar Index closed at 99.59, up slightly from 99.00 last Friday and 11 percentage points above its 2014/15 level on this date.
  • The Great Lakes-St. Lawrence Seaway System 2015 Navigation Season will end Dec. 26. The 2016 Navigation Season typically starts in late March.

File Name
PR 151120.pdf
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