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June 2, 2017
  • Despite support from strong export sales, wheat futures ended the week mixed. Concern about protein levels in the hard red winter (HRW) crop and no rain in the forecast for newly emerged hard red spring (HRS) wheat supported MGEX. KCBT and CBOT slipped lower as everyone waits for harvest to get into full swing and for the initial quality test results on new crop wheat. CBOT July wheat slipped 9 cents to $4.29/bu, KCBT lost 4 cents to $4.33/bu and MGEX added 15 cents to $5.84/bu. CBOT July corn fell 1 cent to $3.73/bu and CBOT July soybeans decreased 5 cents to $9.21/bu.
  • Dry conditions in North Dakota and Montana supported durum prices and HRS export basis this week. Protein premiums for HRW continued to widen, supported by forecasted rain on mature wheat.
  • USDA’s weekly Export Sales Report included net wheat reductions of 29,000 (MT) for marketing year 2016/17. Sales were well within trade expectations of -100,000 to 100,000 MT. Total known outstanding sales and accumulated exports of all classes of wheat for 2016/17, through May 25, 2017, were 28.4 million metric tons (MMT), 37% higher than 20.7 MMT last year on this date, and 9% above the 5-year average. Year-to-date export sales exceed the current USDA 2016/17 U.S. wheat export projection of 28.2 MMT.
  • On May 30, USDA rated 50% of the winter wheat crop in good to excellent condition, down from 54% last week; 15% of winter wheat is in poor or very poor condition. USDA reported 80% of winter wheat had headed, compared to the 5-year average of 77%. Spring wheat planting is 96% complete, up from 90% last week. Spring wheat emergence is 79% complete, compared to the 5-year average of 74%. USDA rated 62% of the spring wheat crop in good to excellent condition compared to 79% last year; 6% of spring wheat is in poor or very poor condition.
  • The May 30 U.S. Drought Monitor noted dry conditions that were helpful for spring planting in the U.S. Northern Plains are now threatening crop development. Ninety-nine percent of North Dakota is either abnormally dry or in a moderate drought compared to just 44% last week. Similarly, 58% of South Dakota and 32% of Montana are abnormally dry or in a moderate drought. Meanwhile, wet field conditions are delaying soft red winter (SRW) harvest and slowing HRW harvest. The 5-day forecast expects above normal temperatures in the Northern Plains and continued wet conditions across parts of Texas, Oklahoma and the Midwest.
  • FranceAgriMer rated 75% of French common wheat in good or excellent condition, down slightly from the prior week and compared to 81% last year.
  • The European Commission decreased its forecast for European Union (EU) common wheat production to 141 MMT, down 600,000 MT from its previous forecast due to extended drought conditions in Spain. Spain wheat production is expected to fall 49% year over year to 9.5 MMT.
  • Bolsa de Cereales, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, expects Argentine wheat planted area to reach 5.5 million hectares (13.6 million acres) of wheat this year, up from 4.3 million hectares (10.6 million acres) last year. As of June 1, Argentine farmers were 11% complete with wheat planting, up from 6% complete the prior week.
  • The Baltic Index fell to 850, down 7% from 912 last week.
  • The Dollar Index decreased to 97.28, down slightly from last Friday’s close of 97.44.
  • Current hard red spring (HRS) price indications are for Northern Spring. Dark Northern Spring is available, but premiums vary. SRW indications are for a minimum falling number of 250. Higher minimum specifications will carry a premium.

File Name
PR 170602.pdf
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