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October 7, 2016
  • U.S. wheat futures closed mixed this week as USDA’s September stocks report continued to pressure CBOT and KCBT wheat contracts and boost MGEX wheat. USDA indicated low priced, low protein wheat is struggling to compete with corn in the feed market while spring wheat supplies are smaller than expected at a time when world supply of high protein wheat is limited. CBOT losses were limited by strong export business. CBOT December wheat closed 7 cents lower at $3.95/bu and KCBT lost 13 cents to $4.03/bu. MGEX December added 10 cents to close at $5.25/bu. CBOT December corn added 3 cents to $3.40/bu and CBOT November soybeans gained 3 cents to $9.57/bu.
  • Despite weak world prices, the International Grains Council (IGC) projects that global winter wheat planted acres for 2017/18 will likely not be much different than 2016/17. While US acres are expected to decline, acres in the EU are expected to remain stable and Black Sea Region acres are expected to increase.
  • USDA estimated that as of September 1 wheat stocks in the US stood at 68.8 MMT, the largest stocks for this time of year since 1987, slightly above industry expectations, and up 20 percent compared to last year. This includes 19.8 MMT on-farm, up 12 percent; and 49.0 MMT off-farm, up 24 percent.
  • The European Commission raised its estimate of this year’s EU non-durum wheat harvest by 0.9 MMT to 134.2 MMT, still well below last year’s record crop of 151.6 MMT. The Commission also raised its estimate for feed wheat use in the EU by 2.3 MMT due to a smaller than expected corn crop.
  • Ukraine’s agricultural ministry and the country’s grain traders have agreed to export 16.5 MMT of wheat in the 2016/17 season (July-June). The exports break down as 60 percent milling wheat and 40 percent feed wheat.
  • According to the environment and farming ministry, Britain's wheat harvest this year is forecast to fall by 12 percent to 14.47 MMT, down from last season's 16.4 million due to reduced yields.
  • Argentina is expected to harvest record corn and wheat crops in 2016/2017. Corn is expected to reach 36.0 MMT, up 20% from last year, while wheat is forecast at 12.5 MMT, up 21% from 2015/2016.
  • The Baltic Dry Index closed at 915 this week, up from 888 last week.
  • The US Dollar Index increased this week to 96.62, up from 95.45 last week.

File Name
PR 161007.pdf
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