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August 4, 2017
  • Pressured by reports of large wheat harvests in Russia and Ukraine, wheat futures fell again this week. Seasonal harvest pressure also weighed on MGEX hard red spring (HRS) futures. CBOT September wheat fell 26 cents to $4.55/bu, KCBT lost 21 cents to $4.59/bu and MGEX decreased 24 cents to $7.16/bu. CBOT September corn dropped 8 cents to $3.66/bu and CBOT August soybeans declined 51 cents to $9.49/bu.
  • Export basis remained mostly unchanged this week after a sharp decrease in wheat futures markets increased buyer interest and shut off farmer sales. Export basis for October, November and December shipment are sharply higher than nearby contracts due to increased demand for freight during corn and soybean harvest.
  • USDA’s weekly Export Sales Report included net wheat sales of 145,500 (MT) for marketing year 2017/18 — a marketing year low. Sales were below trade expectations of 300,000 to 500,000 MT. Total known outstanding sales and accumulated exports of all classes of wheat for 2017/18, through July 27, 2017, were 10.1 million metric tons (MMT) on par with last year’s total on this date, but 3 percent behind the 5-year average. USDA expects 2017/18 U.S. wheat exports to reach 26.5 MMT.
  • On July 31, USDA reported winter wheat harvest is 88% complete, slightly ahead of the 5-year average pace of 86%. USDA rated 31% of the spring wheat crop in good to excellent condition compared to 33% last week; 43% of spring wheat is in poor or very poor condition. USDA reported spring wheat harvest is 9% complete, on par with the 5-year average.
  • The August 1 U.S. Drought Monitor reported rain fell across most of the United States, except the U.S. Northern Plains where continued above average heat and lack of rain expanded drought conditions. Eighty-two percent of North Dakota and 53% of Montana is in a moderate to exceptional drought. With winter wheat harvest nearly complete and spring wheat harvest underway, any measurable rainfall in the U.S. Northern Plains could impact final quality of an already small spring wheat crop.
  • FranceAgriMer reported French wheat harvest is 91% complete, up from 85% the prior week and ahead of the 5-year average.
  • The Saskatchewan weekly crop report reported winter wheat harvest is 6% complete, behind last year’s pace of 10% complete. High temperatures and lack of rain continue to worsen topsoil moisture conditions with 70% rated as short or very short. In Alberta, 59% of spring wheat is rated in good to excellent condition compared to 63% last week. Harvest has begun in southern areas.
  • Reuters reported Ukraine wheat harvest is 77% complete. As of July 28, Ukrainian farmers had harvested 19.1 MMT of wheat with an average yield of 58.0 bu/acre (3.90 MT/hectare), compared to 55.6 bu/acre (3.74 MT/hectare) last year.
  • The Russian Agricultural Ministry stated Russian wheat harvest is 31% complete, slightly behind last year’s pace. Russian farmers have harvested 37.4 MMT thus far.
  • As of August 3, Bolsa de Cereales, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, reported Argentine farmers were 95% complete with wheat planting, up from 92% complete the prior week and ahead of last year’s pace. Bolsa estimates Argentine wheat planted area will total 13.3 million acres (5.4 million hectares).
  • The Baltic Index rose to 1023, up 10% from the prior week’s close of 933.
  • The Dollar Index fell to 92.80 from last Friday’s close of 93.26.
  • Current hard red spring (HRS) price indications are for Northern Spring. Dark Northern Spring is available, but premiums vary. SRW indications are for a minimum falling number of 250. Higher minimum specifications will carry a premium.

File Name
PR 170804.pdf
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