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October 26, 2012


(See attached file: PR 121026.pdf) (See attached file: PR 121026.xls)

Highlights:
  • Wheat futures markets closed mixed this week. Markets were up on Monday amid speculation that Ukraine would implement an export ban and push export demand higher. A firm U.S. dollar pushed futures lower Tuesday but markets were up again on Wednesday when Ukraine officially announced an export ban. However, because the export ban was expected by traders and analysts, follow-through buying was limited and the markets took back most or all of Wednesday’s gains in a profit taking effort on Thursday and Friday. KCBT December contract was the only nearby wheat contract to close higher than last Friday, gaining 1 cent to $9.09/bu. CBOT December wheat lost 9 cents to $8.64/bu and MGEX December closed at $9.40/bu, a 3 cent loss. CBOT December corn lost 24 cents to close at $7.38/bu and CBOT January soybeans gained 27 cents to $15.64/bu.
  • Ukraine's Agriculture Minister on Wednesday announced the country will implement an official wheat export ban, effective Nov. 15, in order to protect the domestic price of bread. In the last few months, Ukrainian wheat traders said the government had set an informal export limit of 5.0 MMT. Ukrainian production fell 30 percent from 2011/12 to 15.5 MMT due to weather damage.
  • The International Grains Council cut its forecast for total 2012/13 world wheat production by 2.0 MMT to 655 MMT, 6 percent below the record 694 MMT set in 2011/12.
  • USDA reported commercial sales of 572,000 MT for the week ending October 18, which were up 40 percent from the previous week and above trade estimates of 350,000 to 450,000 MT. Total known outstanding sales and accumulated exports for the 2012/13 marketing year are 14.3 million metric tons (MMT), 10 percent lower than last year's year-to-date total of 15.9 MMT. USDA forecasts 2012/13 U.S. wheat exports to reach 31.3 MMT.
  • The Baltic Panamax Index fell to 804 this week, down from 879 last Friday. A slowdown in iron ore purchases among Chinese mills, low coal shipments and an ample supply of ships all pressured the market. Maritime Research’s Grain Freight Index increased from 513.1 to 521.0.
  • The ICE US Dollar Index closed higher this week at 80.16, up from 79.69 last Friday.

File Name
PR 121026.pdf
PR 121026.xls
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